UBS Notes Apple's iPhone Wait Times Roughly Flat Year-Over-Year Excluding China

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Yesterday

UBS has released a research report maintaining a "Neutral" rating on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) with a price target of $296, which translates to roughly 29 times its blended forecast of $10.31 in earnings per share for calendar years 2027 and 2028.

The firm's tracking data, covering iPhone supply conditions across more than 30 regions, shows that average wait times for the Pro and Pro Max models have increased by about three days and two days, respectively, on a week-over-week basis.

The average year-over-year gap for both models has narrowed to roughly one day fewer, an improvement from the initial reading of two days fewer seen at the start of the prior week. Excluding a four-day year-over-year reduction in China, wait times across other regions are essentially flat, suggesting a potential marginal improvement in demand trends.

The report highlights that the Apple iPhone 18 Pro Max currently has an average wait time of approximately 24 days, compared with about 25 days for the 17 Pro Max and 23 days for the 16 Pro Max. For the iPhone 18 Pro, the average wait sits at roughly 17 days, versus 18 days for the 17 Pro and 17 days for the 16 Pro.

Wait times ahead of the October Duo launch are a key metric to monitor, while the supply situation in China also warrants attention, as earlier surveys have indicated that local interest in foldable devices, particularly an Apple foldable, is higher than in other markets.

UBS has left its iPhone forecasts unchanged, estimating September 2026 quarter iPhone revenue of $55.9 billion, up 14% year-over-year, with shipments of 55 million units, a 2.8% increase. For the full 2026 fiscal year, the firm projects iPhone revenue of $252.4 billion, a 20.4% annual rise, and shipments of 261 million units, up 15.4%.

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