Japan's Central Bank Raises Key Rate to a Level Unseen Since 1995

Deep News
4 hours ago

Japan's central bank has lifted its benchmark interest rate to the highest point in 31 years, accelerating its exit from an ultra-loose monetary policy regime while facing mounting pressure from Washington, thereby joining the global fight against inflation.

The Bank of Japan's policy board decided by a 7-to-2 vote to raise the target rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to approximately 1.25%. This move, unveiled on a Friday, was broadly anticipated across financial markets. The backdrop includes rising consumer prices and a weakened yen, which have squeezed Japanese households.

Despite the tightening, the yen failed to gain traction. Earlier this year, the currency had slid to a four-decade low against the US dollar. Following the announcement, the yen depreciated sharply, breaking past the 157-per-dollar threshold. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 stock index advanced by 1.9%.

Stephen Angrick, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Moody's Analytics, noted that "the market had almost fully priced in this 25-basis-point hike, leaving the central bank with little room to exceed expectations."

This action aligns with similar rate increases taken recently by both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Central banks worldwide are scrambling to address price pressures stemming from Middle East conflicts and the ripple effects of the artificial intelligence boom.

The Bank of Japan's previous hike occurred in June, lifting the rate to 1%. It had previously signaled plans to tighten roughly every six months. However, the pace has accelerated, particularly after Japanese authorities spent a massive $96 billion in July and August to prop up the yen through market intervention. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been publicly urging the Bank of Japan to quicken its tightening cycle.

The statement accompanying the decision offered little hint of a follow-up move at the board's next meeting in October. Prior to the announcement, currency analysts at Nomura indicated that market participants assigned a very low probability to consecutive rate hikes.

Analysts pointed out that both dissenting board members were appointees of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has favored stimulative, inflation-boosting government spending and has historically criticized contractionary monetary measures. Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, commented that "the two most hawkish members on the board will step down next July, which likely means the committee's overall stance will turn more dovish thereafter."

Nevertheless, analysts believe the central bank's overall tone remains hawkish, keeping alive the possibility of at least one more hike before December. Japan is grappling with rising costs for imported energy, food, and other raw materials, and the market's high anticipation for the central bank to support the yen adds considerable weight on policymakers.

In its statement, the central bank reiterated concerns voiced at prior meetings, noting that upward pressures from business-to-business transactions "have started to transmit to consumer prices," with core inflation potentially exceeding its 2% target.

The Federal Reserve's rate increase on Wednesday, its first since 2023, moved the target range to 3.75%-4%. Traders now speculate this could trigger a "hiking race" among global central banks. This scenario carries direct implications for the yen carry trade, a popular strategy that uses Japan's low-cost currency to fund investments in higher-yielding overseas assets.

Following the decision, Japan's 10-year benchmark government bond yield remained relatively stable but hovered near 3%, a level unseen in three decades. The European Central Bank also raised its rate by 25 basis points last week, bringing it to 2.5% in what was its second hike this year.

Bessent's earlier remarks this month, asserting that the Bank of Japan would "make the right choices" and would not let its policy lag behind the curve, have intensified scrutiny on Governor Kazuo Ueda. Naoto Sekiguchi, a Japan economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, wrote in a client note before the decision that expecting Ueda to outline a clear rate-hike roadmap at his Friday afternoon press conference would be "unrealistic."

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