ECB Official Signals October Rate Hike Possible if Inflation Surges, Urges Caution

Deep News
Yesterday

European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras stated that upside risks to inflation must be monitored, yet action should not be rushed. The Greek central bank governor, in an interview on Saturday, noted that while the absence of second-round effects in wages so far is "good news," it cannot be taken for granted that this trend will persist.

"We are facing a series of ongoing supply-side shocks, and we cannot turn a blind eye to them. At the same time, demand remains robust due to fiscal expansion and a boom in artificial intelligence investment," he said during a meeting of European finance ministers and central bank governors in Dublin. "We must remain vigilant."

With a month remaining before the next policy decision, Stournaras indicated he has not yet made up his mind, and the various economic projections prepared by the ECB could serve as a guide. "If inflation surges in September or energy costs rise, putting us in an unfavorable position, then the possibility of an October rate hike cannot be ruled out," he remarked. "However, if there are uncertainties, we will refrain from action and wait for the next round of forecasts. There is no need to hurry."

Stournaras cautioned that the current environment remains volatile. "If economic data shows that resilience is unsustainable or that activity growth is slowing, I believe that would be a reason not to hike but to pause," he warned. Furthermore, "if a deal is reached in the Middle East, energy prices could decline rapidly again."

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