On September 15, Marathon Petroleum rose 3.04% in regular trading, trading at $408.76/share, with turnover of $3.67 billion. The rally was driven by a confluence of tightening global oil supply and a wave of bullish analyst upgrades.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's main oil pipeline to the Red Sea remains disrupted. If operations cannot be restored within days, global oil supply could decline by as much as 4%. The International Energy Agency noted that Saudi oil supply in August had already fallen to its lowest level in over thirty years, with global supply projected to decrease by 5.7 million barrels per day, approximately 6% of total output. The severe supply constraint is a significant positive for refining companies like Marathon Petroleum.

Simultaneously, multiple investment banks have substantially raised their price targets on the stock. Morgan Stanley lifted its target from $265 to $453 while maintaining an overweight rating. UBS raised its target from $321 to $450 with a buy rating, and Piper Sandler adjusted its target from $344 to $462, also maintaining an overweight rating. Within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector, peers also posted gains, with PBF Energy up 6.26%, Delek US up 3.95%, HF Sinclair up 3.6%, Phillips 66 up 2.73%, and Valero up 2.45%.

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