On Monday, September 21, international gold prices retreated and closed lower after encountering resistance, pressured by hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve officials. St. Louis Fed President Musalem stated that "further rate hikes may still be necessary to curb inflation," while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee echoed that if inflation does not subside, rate increases need to be clearly considered. Additionally, former President Trump's comment that "this absurd Russia-Ukraine conflict must end" reduced safe-haven demand, further pressuring gold prices.
However, oil prices also fell sharply, driven by optimism that Saudi Arabia's damaged "East-West Pipeline" could resume operations soon, along with progress in US-Iran restarting negotiations. This eased inflationary pressures and provided some support for gold. Moreover, gold remains above support levels such as the 100-day moving average, maintaining buying interest, suggesting that dips toward the 100-day or 60-day moving average support zones still present attractive entry points for bullish positions.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,377.20 per ounce, initially recording a daily high of $4,383.18 before facing resistance and declining steadily. During the European and US sessions, prices traded in a range, hitting a daily low of $4,322.78 in European trading before stabilizing and recovering. The session ultimately closed at $4,343.44, with a daily range of $60.40, down $33.76, or 0.77% from the opening price.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, September 22, international gold started the Asian morning session by recovering some of yesterday's losses before retreating again. The significant drop in oil prices yesterday provided underlying support, but the overnight stabilization in crude, combined with the CME FedWatch tool showing traders currently pricing an 88% probability of a December rate hike, kept the US dollar index elevated in its rebound range, capping gold's upside momentum and causing prices to pull back. In the near term, gold is likely to remain range-bound.
Today's economic calendar includes the US ADP employment change for the week ending September 5 (in thousands) and the September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Additionally, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the 2026 Treasury Market Conference, followed by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson at the same event. Based on recent patterns, these data releases are expected to have limited impact, while past commentary suggests Williams leans toward balance sheet reduction and Jefferson holds a hawkish stance. Overall, the environment remains dominated by higher interest rates and a firm dollar, which is bearish for gold prices. Therefore, intraday trading is expected to be skewed toward weakness.
Nevertheless, geopolitical risks and persistent inflation continue to support the long-term investment case for gold. As such, for international spot gold, short-term traders should focus on intraday tactical positions, while long-term accumulators can still consider buying on dips for strategic holdings.
On the monthly chart, gold is currently oscillating between its 5-month and 10-month moving averages. While momentum indicators continue to show bearish signals, the main chart's Bollinger Bands trend suggests an upward tilt, indicating the possibility of several months of consolidation before a renewed push toward new highs. This sideways adjustment phase thus represents a long-term accumulation opportunity.
On the weekly chart, gold has bounced from lows and shown renewed strength, failing to decisively break below the 60-week moving average support. However, significant overhead resistance from multiple moving averages looms. Unless prices rally above the August high, there remains a risk of extended sideways consolidation and potential new lows. Until then, traders should adopt a phased approach, alternating between short-term rebounds and pullbacks for medium-term positioning.
On the daily chart, gold's rebound is encountering resistance at the middle Bollinger Band, leading to a consolidation phase. With overhead resistance and underlying support, short-term trading is likely to remain range-bound. Traders can consider short positions near the middle Bollinger Band and the 30-day moving average, while looking to buy near the 100-day and 60-day moving average support levels. The following are intraday preliminary support and resistance levels for reference, with exact entry and exit points to be determined by live signals.
For gold, support is seen near $4,335 or $4,315, with resistance around $4,385 or $4,405. For silver, support is located near $66.00 or $65.60, while resistance stands at $67.30 or $68.10. This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.