On Thursday, September 17, international spot gold rebounded and closed higher, driven by a reduction in inflationary concerns. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was fully priced in, and President Trump confirmed he would meet with Gulf state leaders, with an Iranian delegation also permitted to attend. Reports that Saudi Arabia has secured alternative routes for oil exports contributed to a second consecutive day of declining crude prices, which helped temper inflation expectations and boosted gold's appeal.
This rally allowed bullion to recoup its weekly losses, shifting momentum to the upside. Prices also bounced off support at the 60-day moving average, which validated the strategy of buying on dips for those long positions, yielding profits. With short-term bearish pressure weakening, the outlook remains constructive, favoring buying on dips and expecting a rebound, as long as the 60-day moving average support level holds.
Tracing the day's price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,264.18 per ounce, initially dipping to a session low of $4,257.35. From there, it climbed steadily, reaching a high of $4,380.94 during early US trading before encountering resistance and pulling back. The metal ultimately settled at $4,341.68, marking an intraday range of $123.59 and a gain of $77.58, or 1.82% for the day.
Looking ahead to Friday, September 18, international gold has opened with a firmer tone, pausing its decline and strengthening, buoyed by the support from the recent rebound. On the fundamental front, the Fed's rate hike has been delivered, and the notion of "bad news being out" has reduced bearish pressure, stimulating buying interest at key support levels. While the central bank's dot plot still hints at one more potential hike this year, the immediate price drop following the decision has already absorbed much of this impact. Moreover, any subsequent rate increase would require further supportive data and inflation evidence, making it unlikely to exert significant downward pressure in the near term.
Consequently, in the short term, gold is expected to either consolidate in a base-building pattern or stage a rebound from its oversold levels. Later today, market participants will look to the US industrial production data for August and the Conference Board's leading index, with expectations mixed. Additionally, Fed Governor Bowman is slated to participate in a discussion on stress testing, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, an FOMC voter for 2028, is scheduled to speak. Based on Schmid's recent hawkish comments and Thursday's evening price action, the pattern may repeat: a bias for gains during Asian and European hours, followed by potential resistance and pullback in the US session.
On the weekly chart, gold is showing signs of a bottoming reversal, as it has not decisively broken below the 60-week moving average. However, the metal faces considerable resistance from several converging moving averages overhead. Unless prices rally back above the August high, the risk of further sideways consolidation and a drop to new lows remains. Until then, a strategy of alternating between phase-based rallies and pullbacks is recommended for short- to medium-term trading.
On the daily chart, gold has halted its slide at the 60-day moving average support and reclaimed ground above the 100-day moving average. Bullish momentum is strengthening, with the 100-day and 60-day moving averages now acting as solid support. While these levels are not broken, the operational bias is to buy on dips, targeting the 200-day moving average resistance at $4,540. For intraday trading, key technical levels are as follows: gold faces support at $4,325 and $4,295, with resistance at $4,410 and $4,460. Meanwhile, silver has support at $64.80 and $64.20, with resistance at $66.60 and $68.10. These levels provide a framework for short-term positioning, with exact entry and exit points to be guided by real-time market conditions.