Top Story: Fed October Rate Hike Probability Nears 70%

Overnight and into this morning, a rally in international oil prices, coupled with stronger-than-expected U.S. PMI data, triggered a renewed wave of aggressive selling in U.S. Treasuries. As of this writing, the five-year Treasury yield surged nearly 20 basis points, breaking above the 5% mark for the first time since 2007. Meanwhile, the two-year yield jumped roughly 15 basis points to surpass 4.9%, setting a new high since late 2024, while the ten-year yield climbed over 16 basis points to cross the 5.1% threshold, also reaching a nearly 19-year peak.

The spike in U.S. Treasury yields underscores a sell-off in government debt. The U.S. Treasury's five-year note auction on Wednesday also came in well below expectations. The auction's issuing rate was 5.033%, which was 3.1 basis points above the pre-auction when-issued yield of 5.002%, and the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 2.21 times, lower than the six-month average of 2.33 times.

Following the PMI release, market pricing for at least a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October meeting rose to roughly 75%, up from about 53% before the data. As of this writing, the latest CME FedWatch tool indicates the probability of an October hike has eased slightly to 68.6%. The Fed just raised its federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% last week, with the next policy meeting scheduled for October 27-28.

Market Outlook: Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index Falls 1.43%

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 352.1 points to close at 51,511.59, a decline of 0.68%. The S&P 500 dropped 58.61 points to 7,706.03, down 0.75%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 308.24 points to finish at 26,936.04, a drop of 1.13%. Among the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, performance was mixed: Meta rose 1.02% to lead gains, Microsoft gained 0.52%, and Tesla added 0.32%, while Alphabet fell 3.80% to lead losses, Amazon declined 2.24%, Nvidia slipped 1.47%, and Apple dropped 0.80%.

Optical communication and memory chip stocks mostly declined, with SanDisk, Corning, Coherent, Ciena, and SK Hynix all falling more than 3%. Gold mining stocks were broadly lower, with Pan American Silver and Harmony Gold dropping over 5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.43% to close at 5,763.01 points. The Hang Seng Index ADR declined, translating to a closing level of 24,789.41 points, down 44.71 points or 0.18% from the Hong Kong close.

NYMEX WTI crude oil futures for the front-month continuous contract rose $2.19 to settle at $92.71 per barrel, an increase of 2.42%. COMEX gold futures for the front-month continuous contract fell $53.70, or 1.23%, to $4,322.7 per ounce.

Hot Topics Ahead: Hong Kong Expects About 1.29 Million Mainland Visitors During National Day Golden Week

According to reports, Hong Kong's Chief Secretary for Administration, Chan Kwok-ki, chaired a cross-departmental working group meeting on holiday arrangements and noted that mainland visitor arrivals during the National Day Golden Week are expected to rise. The Immigration Department estimates that around 1.29 million mainland tourists will enter Hong Kong through various sea, land, and air control points during this year's Golden Week, with the average daily visitor count increasing by over 5% compared to last year's National Day Golden Week.

Could Hong Kong Stock Trading Hours Be Extended? Leung Fung-yee: HKEX to Launch Market Consultation on Feasibility

Leung Fung-yee, CEO of the Securities and Futures Commission, revealed that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (00388) will seek opinions from stakeholders on the feasibility of extending stock market trading hours, with the consultation expected to commence shortly.

China Successfully Launches 26 Low-Orbit Satellite Internet Satellites

At 21:32 on the 23rd, China used a Long March 8A carrier rocket at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site to successfully send the 26th group of low-orbit satellite internet satellites into space. The satellites entered their预定 orbit smoothly, marking a complete success for the mission. This development is relevant to the commercial aerospace concept sector in Hong Kong stocks.

WuXi AppTec (02359): RMB 6.78 Billion Zero-Coupon Convertible Bonds Due 2027 Fully Converted and Delisted

WuXi AppTec (02359) issued an announcement regarding the issuance of RMB 6.78 billion in US dollar-denominated zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2027 and the early redemption of these bonds. As of the announcement date, all outstanding bonds have been fully converted into the company's H-shares in accordance with the bond terms and conditions. Therefore, there are no remaining outstanding bonds, and the early redemption arrangement will no longer proceed. The delisting of the bonds from the Vienna Stock Exchange is expected to take effect at the start of trading on September 25, 2026.

Nine Dragons Paper (02689) Reports Annual Results with Shareholders' Profit Attributable to Owners of RMB 3.581 Billion, Up 102.62% Year-on-Year

Basic earnings per share stood at RMB 0.76, with a proposed final dividend of 10 HK cents per share. As of June 30, 2026, the group's combined design annual production capacity for packaging board, cultural paper, high-value specialty paper, and pulp products was approximately 30.9 million tonnes. This includes around 12.8 million tonnes of kraft linerboard, 6.4 million tonnes of high-value specialty paper and pulp products, 3.7 million tonnes of high-strength corrugating medium, 3.0 million tonnes of white-top linerboard, 3.0 million tonnes of cultural paper, and 2.0 million tonnes of coated duplex board with grey back. The four U.S. paper mills have an annual capacity of roughly 1.3 million tonnes of products, including about 900,000 tonnes of one-side coated paper, copperplate paper, and coated mechanical pulp paper for cultural and specialty paper applications, as well as approximately 400,000 tonnes of recycled pulp and wood pulp products.

CDB Leasing (01606) Plans to Purchase Information Technology Computer Equipment for RMB 6.484 Billion

CDB Leasing (01606) announced that the company, as the buyer, entered into a product purchase agreement with the seller, Guangdong Shuhuan Zhilian Technology Co., Ltd., on September 23, 2026 (after trading hours). Under this agreement, the seller agrees to sell, and the buyer agrees to purchase, the procurement targets for a total consideration of approximately RMB 6.484 billion.

Estun Automation (02715) Plans to Acquire Approximately 44.8601% Stake in Estun Jiangsu Intelligent, Increasing Its Holding to Around 95.0107%

Estun Automation (02715) announced that on September 23, 2026, the board resolved to acquire, via public tender, the equity interests in the target company, Estun Jiangsu Intelligent, held by the National Manufacturing Fund (approximately 19.4574%) and the Mixed Reform Fund (approximately 3.7834%), as well as the equity interest held by the General Technology High-End Equipment Fund (approximately 21.6193%). The minimum prices for the two batches of equity to be sold are RMB 210.6 million and RMB 40.25 million, respectively. The potential public tender acquisition is still subject to the public listing and trading procedures. As of the announcement date, no formal agreement has been signed regarding the proposed acquisition.

China Risun Group (01907) Plans to Inject RMB 507 Million into Xiangfu New Energy to Support Rapid Capacity Expansion

The group has a positive long-term outlook on the new energy industry. Xiangfu New Energy is currently building a 200,000-tonne integrated anode material project along with a supporting source-grid-load-storage green power project. Once the 200,000-tonne anode material integration project and a 100,000-tonne anode material project are completed and operational, they will collectively form a finished product process capacity of 280,000 tonnes per year. Additionally, Xiangfu New Energy has a medium- to long-term plan in Shangdu County for no less than 500,000 tonnes of integrated capacity, with a supporting application for a 600MW green power direct-connection project. It also plans to layout capacity in other regions closer to customers. This capital increase will provide Xiangfu New Energy with additional capital to rapidly expand capacity, increase market share, reduce unit production costs, achieve economies of scale, and enhance overall competitiveness.

Lepu Biopharma (02157): CMG901 (AZD0901) Clinical Study Results Selected for LBA and Will Be Presented at Presidential Symposium

A total of four clinical study results have been selected for presentation at the 2026 ESMO Congress, which will be held in Madrid, Spain, from October 23-27, 2026 (local time). As one of the world's largest, most prestigious, and most authoritative oncology conferences, the ESMO Congress brings together top experts, clinicians, and clinical researchers from around the globe to discuss advanced treatment concepts and cutting-edge clinical and translational research progress in oncology.

Stock Spotlight: Joyson Electronics (00699): Optimus Robot Business Launches Mass Production Audit; Citi Sees Positive Profit Exposure for the Company

According to industry chain sources cited in a report, a Tesla-related team landed in Ningbo on September 16 and initiated a new round of mass production audits for its robot business on September 17. This round of audits is said to be substantively geared towards the mass production of the Optimus robot, with relevant purchase orders already issued to supply chain companies. Reports suggest that Tesla launched a round of robot audits in China in September last year, involving traditional Tesla automotive supply chain companies such as Tuopu Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Zhejiang Rongtai, Xinquan, and Joyson Electronics (00699). Joyson Electronics stated that, due to confidentiality requirements, it is not convenient to respond to inquiries about downstream customer situations.

Citi views the audits and upcoming capacity ramp-up as positive for Chinese Optimus suppliers and may boost investor sentiment following the de-rating of the robot theme since late May. Citi estimates that Tesla's Optimus could contribute approximately 5% to Joyson Electronics (00699)'s net profit exposure in 2027. It is noted that Joyson Electronics (00699) plans to intensively release core robot components and system solutions, including dexterous hands, in 2026. Among these, the embodied intelligence brain solution EAOS+EAPC stands out as a key highlight of the company's current robot business layout.