The National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 24 that since the domestic refined oil price adjustment on September 11, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has been complex and volatile, with international crude oil prices rising rapidly before falling back and then surging again recently.

To cushion the impact of rising international oil prices on the domestic market, the government has continued to apply regulatory measures on refined oil prices.

According to calculations based on the current pricing mechanism, from 24:00 on September 24, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard grade) should have been raised by 830 yuan and 800 yuan per ton respectively, but after regulation, the actual increases were 395 yuan and 385 yuan per ton.

This marks the fourth time in about half a year that the government has intervened to regulate refined oil prices amid sharp fluctuations in international oil prices. Converted to per-liter prices, 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-grade diesel will rise by 0.31 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.33 yuan per liter respectively.

The reduction in the fuel price increase will help ease the travel cost pressure on consumers during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday period to some extent.

Wang Xueqin, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told The Paper that due to the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of Saudi Arabia's Red Sea crude oil pipeline, global crude oil supply risks have increased, and international oil prices strengthened overall during this pricing cycle, once hitting a four-month high.

Although oil prices fell back from their highs later due to factors such as Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East, China's crude oil change rate remained in positive territory, so this round of retail price adjustments maintained an upward direction.

This is the "third consecutive increase" in refined oil retail prices. According to Wang Xueqin's estimates, after the policy takes effect, filling up a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline for a small private car will cost 15.5 yuan more than before.

For a small private car running 2,000 kilometers per month with fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, consumer fuel costs will increase by 35 yuan before the next price adjustment window at 24:00 on October 15.

Logistics industry costs will also rise. For a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost per vehicle will increase by about 878 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens.

Looking ahead, oil prices may cool down. Li Yan, a crude oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that international oil prices have already declined during this pricing cycle, and the impact will be factored into the next cycle, so the next cycle will start with a downward adjustment.

Although the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, multiple parties are actively pushing for a de-escalation in the Middle East, and the probability of intense geopolitical fluctuations before the U.S. midterm elections is relatively low. Overall, the next round of refined oil price adjustments is expected to be a downward one.

"In the short term, international oil prices will remain volatile, and the change rate may stay within a narrow range, with the next price adjustment likely to be a cut," said Wang Yanting, a refined oil analyst at JLC.

She noted that because international crude oil prices fell broadly in the later part of this pricing cycle, the change rate will turn negative in the new cycle, with the first working day after the adjustment showing a change rate of around -4%, corresponding to a reduction of about 210 yuan per ton.

Zhuochuang Information analysis suggests that Iran's participation in the UN General Assembly, while maintaining a tough stance, also signals that a diplomatic resolution to the conflict is possible, and one round of peace talks has already been held. U.S. President Trump has announced that a second round of talks may be arranged soon, which could put pressure on crude oil prices.

Based on current crude oil prices, the recalculated crude oil change rate may start in negative territory, and domestic refined oil retail prices may face downward expectations.

After the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran immediately blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy chokepoint, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.

The National Development and Reform Commission announced on March 23 that to cushion the impact of abnormal rises in international oil prices, reduce the burden on downstream users, and ensure stable economic operation and social welfare, temporary regulatory measures were being applied to domestic refined oil prices while maintaining the existing pricing mechanism framework.

From 24:00 on March 23, domestic gasoline and diesel prices should have been raised by 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan per ton respectively, but after regulation, the actual increases were 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan. This was the first regulatory intervention since the current refined oil pricing mechanism was implemented in 2013.

Then at the April 7 pricing window, the government continued to apply regulatory measures on refined oil prices, with gasoline and diesel prices that should have risen by 800 yuan and 770 yuan per ton actually increasing by 420 yuan and 400 yuan after regulation.

After the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated again, at the September 11 pricing window, the National Development and Reform Commission once again announced temporary regulatory measures on domestic refined oil prices.

According to calculations based on the current pricing mechanism, on September 11, domestic gasoline and diesel (standard grade) prices should have been raised by 435 yuan and 420 yuan per ton respectively, but after regulation, the actual increases were 260 yuan and 250 yuan.