Futures market data from September 17, 2026 shows the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 108,020 yuan per tonne and closed at 108,500 yuan per tonne, up 0.71% from the previous trading day's settlement. During overnight trading, the contract opened at 109,200 yuan per tonne and settled at 109,650 yuan per tonne, marking a 1.42% gain from yesterday's afternoon close.
According to SMM data, the spot premium for SMM 1# electrolytic copper against the Shanghai copper 2610 contract stood at 550-710 yuan per tonne, averaging 630 yuan per tonne, down 15 yuan per tonne from the prior day. The Shanghai copper 2609 contract gapped lower at the open but trended higher throughout morning trading, hitting a low of 107,480 yuan per tonne and a high of 108,450 yuan per tonne before closing at 108,370 yuan per tonne. The month-over-month back spread ranged from 350-410 yuan per tonne, while the import loss for the current month was 410-480 yuan per tonne.
Both selling and purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai region improved sequentially. Sellers initially lowered quotes, and low-priced cargo moved quickly, after which mainstream flat copper supplies tightened and quotes were revised higher once again.
Key Market Fundamentals
On the inventory front, Shanghai social stocks totaled 58,600 tonnes, down 2,500 tonnes week-on-week, while Jiangsu inventories inched up to 20,800 tonnes, resulting in an overall modest drawdown. Looking at the fundamental picture, incoming imported copper arrivals may pressure spot premiums, but tight circulating supply in Shanghai, combined with some downstream players beginning dual-festival stockpiling, has revived buying interest. Spot premiums for Shanghai copper are expected to hold at elevated levels today, with a possibility of modest upside.
On the geopolitical front, reports indicate that former President Trump is expected to meet with Gulf state leaders next Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York to discuss post-war arrangements regarding Iran. The meeting is expected to focus on the post-war strategic framework proposed by the US. Trump and his senior team are developing a post-war plan that is expected to be finalized after the midterm elections. An Israeli source noted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also wishes to meet with Trump in New York, though no such meeting has been arranged yet.
In economic data, the US labor market shows clear divergence. Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, while continued claims dropped to their lowest level since January 2024, indicating limited corporate layoff pressure. However, consumer surveys point to a deteriorating job-search environment. The coexistence of low layoffs and low hiring suggests a labor market characterized by stable existing employment but weak new job creation, leaving the true temperature of the labor market open to debate.
On the mining front, Canadian copper-zinc explorer Osisko Metals has officially unveiled its asset restructuring plan, establishing a new independent mineral exploration company, Osisko Critical Minerals Corporation (OCMC), to take over and operate the group's non-core mineral assets in New Brunswick. The spin-off aims to unlock the value of existing exploration assets, build a specialized critical minerals operating entity, and achieve differentiated development between core and non-core businesses. John Burzynski has been appointed CEO of the new company. Burzynski noted that New Brunswick historically hosted major metal deposits and that the company's assets hold excellent potential for defining significant tonnage porphyry-skarn mineralization. Despite the geological environment being nearly identical to and relatively close to Osisko's flagship Gaspé copper project, northern New Brunswick has never been explored for these systems. The company believes the assets transferred to OCMC carry significant untested potential and could lead to new copper discoveries in New Brunswick.
In smelting and import news, Chilean state-owned copper giant Codelco told Reuters on Wednesday that its restructuring plan may not be ready until late 2026, marking a delay in the highly anticipated strategy aimed at addressing years of stagnant production and rising costs. The transformation plan was originally expected in October. Codelco stated it is currently conducting a diagnostic process to determine strategic direction and develop a recovery plan, work that is already underway and should be completed by the end of 2026. New CEO Jorge Gomez joined in July, and the company noted that such reviews are standard when new leadership takes over. Four sources familiar with the matter indicated that the new management is reassessing its workforce of nearly 77,000 people to restore competitiveness. The scale of potential cuts ranges from 5% up to as much as one-fifth, though no final decisions have been made. Sources added that some reductions could come from Codelco selling or closing less profitable operations or deferring projects to ease cost pressures.
On the consumption side, multiple US AI giants have raised concerns over safety risks and called for a slowdown in AI iteration pace. Combined with persistently rising US Treasury yields, chip stocks including Nvidia have experienced sharp volatility, dragging down computing-metal prices such as copper and tin. International markets have begun to brace for potential US policy shifts. Since September, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures market structure has reversed rapidly, shifting from spot short-covering to futures contango. The Bank for International Settlements noted in its September quarterly report that funds are reducing concentrated bets on a handful of AI leaders. However, the industrial side has not shown substantive contraction in tandem with financial market sentiment, and industry insiders judge that the non-ferrous metals market will maintain its strength over the next two quarters.
In inventory and warrant data, LME warrants changed by +1,750 tonnes to 255,900 tonnes from the prior session. SHFE warrants decreased by 1,545 tonnes to 31,400 tonnes. As of September 18, domestic electrolytic copper bonded warehouse stocks stood at 89,100 tonnes, down 1,200 tonnes from the previous week.
Strategy Outlook
Copper: Cautiously bullish. Overall, copper prices have remained relatively resilient against the backdrop of Fed rate adjustments, reflecting the metal's still-strong underlying fundamentals. With downstream players commencing pre-holiday stockpiling, companies with hedging needs are still advised to adopt a proactive approach toward buy-on-dips hedging operations.
Arbitrage: Pause
Options: Pause
Key Risks
Excessively rapid decline in domestic demand, significant inventory accumulation, and overseas liquidity stampede risks.