According to a research report released by Orient Securities Company Limited, China's electricity demand is projected to maintain an average annual growth rate of approximately 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. In response to the systemic transformation driven by the large-scale integration of renewable energy, the construction of new-type power grids must be systematically advanced with a focus on new architectures, new technologies, and new services.
The National Energy Administration has clarified that the share of new energy in power generation will continue to rise, accompanied by clear target guidance. The massive grid integration of renewable energy will drive demand for ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission construction and new-type grid infrastructure, boosting the volume of both primary and secondary equipment.
The report highlights that, per The China Energy News, the National Energy Administration recently convened a work deployment meeting on new-type grid construction. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, electricity demand is expected to grow steadily, the proportion of new energy will increase further, and high-end industries will require higher-quality green electricity. Meanwhile, the rapid emergence of new business models and formats, coupled with intensifying core technology competition, places greater demands on the construction of new-type power grids. Facing the systemic change from high-penetration renewable integration, grid development must be coordinated around new frameworks, advanced technologies, and enhanced services.
Orient Securities summarized the meeting's four key priorities for building new-type power grids. The first involves reinforcing the grid foundation by establishing a coordinated main-distribution-microgrid architecture. This design accommodates high-penetration renewable integration, shifts the grid from unidirectional power delivery to bidirectional source-grid-load-storage interaction, smooths the volatility of wind and solar generation, and supports distributed energy access. Second, technological innovation must be strengthened, with the deployment of AI, flexible grid-forming controls, intelligent scheduling, and long-duration energy storage. The system will evolve from "source-follows-load" to "source-load interaction" to address the weak inertia and output volatility of renewables, fostering new quality productive forces in the energy sector. Third, grid services will be expanded to accommodate new business formats. For new loads such as computing power and electrified transportation, the grid is expected to transform into an integrated "energy plus computing" platform, enabling computing-electricity coordination and source-grid-load-storage integration. Fourth, safety must be safeguarded through the construction of highly resilient grids, addressing fault characteristic changes from power electronics and extreme weather impacts, ensuring stable large-grid operation, and balancing energy transition with system security.
As renewable energy penetration continues to rise, grid construction will shift toward coordinated main-distribution-microgrid development. The new-type grid industrial chain offers strong upstream and downstream linkage effects, providing both short-term stable investment and long-term energy structure optimization value. Regarding penetration rates, the share of renewable installed capacity and generation rose rapidly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and by 2030, wind and solar capacity is expected to exceed 50%, making high-penetration renewables the new normal for power systems.
On the generation side, wind and solar volatility increases the uncertainty of power flow, while the declining share of synchronous thermal units leaves the system with low inertia, low damping, and weak support characteristics, heightening stability risks and creating demand for power electronics and stability control equipment. On the grid side, AC/DC and high/low voltage networks are becoming deeply coupled, with the system shifting from a "main-grid dominant, distribution-grid auxiliary" model to "multi-layered main-distribution-microgrid coordination," where bidirectional power flows significantly raise the complexity of dispatch and operation. On the load side, consumers are transitioning from pure electricity users to prosumers, with distributed photovoltaics increasingly integrated into medium and low-voltage distribution networks. These networks are evolving from passive to active systems, strengthening source-grid-load-storage interaction and increasing the need for safety management and intelligent retrofitting.
Orient Securities Company Limited believes that as domestic renewable penetration rises, it introduces greater uncertainty and volatility into the existing grid. The National Energy Administration has clearly directed a transition from "main-grid led, distribution assisted" toward coordinated main-distribution-microgrid development. The firm maintains a bullish outlook on the approval and construction of major grid projects, including transmission corridors, and expects new-type grid construction to drive demand for both primary and secondary grid equipment.
The primary risk is that investment in distribution network construction may fall short of expectations.