During the Asian session on Wednesday, September 16, international gold prices experienced a sharp rally followed by a steep decline, closing with an inverted hammer candlestick pattern. The Federal Reserve's rate hike decision was confirmed, while the dot plot signaled further tightening expectations within the year, which pressured gold prices. However, given the candlestick pattern and price action holding above the 60-day moving average, there are indications of a potential rebound from oversold conditions. Support at the 60-day moving average or the lower Bollinger Band may provide opportunities to initiate long positions.
Tracking the session, gold opened the Asian hours at $4,294.22 per ounce, briefly dipping to $4,275 before reversing higher. Prices strengthened throughout the day, extending gains into the early hours of Thursday morning, reaching an intraday high of $4,365.50 around 2:00 AM. This peak triggered a sharp pullback, with prices plunging to an intraday low of $4,235.00 by 3:00 AM before stabilizing. The session concluded at $4,263.85, marking a daily range of $130.50 and a decline of $30.37, or 0.71%.
Looking ahead to Thursday's trading, gold opened firmer, buoyed by late-session recovery momentum from the prior session and buying interest near the 60-day moving average. The Federal Reserve's rate hike during the early hours has essentially removed the immediate bearish catalyst. However, with the dot plot indicating the possibility of one more hike this year, any upside in gold prices is likely to be temporary. From a monthly and weekly perspective, the metal may continue its sideways consolidation phase.
Today's economic calendar features the weekly initial jobless claims, August housing starts and building permits data, the September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and pending home sales figures. Based on overall market expectations and recent data trends, these releases appear more likely to favor gold prices. Consequently, today's trading could see gold oscillating or rebounding moderately.
From a fundamental perspective, the Fed's unanimous decision to raise rates by 25 basis points marks its first hike since July 2023, while maintaining guidance for another potential increase this year. In the near term, risks remain skewed to the downside for gold if Middle East tensions escalate further, pushing energy prices higher, and if subsequent data continues to show persistent inflation and economic resilience. Should regional conflicts de-escalate and oil prices decline significantly, easing inflation concerns, gold could find opportunities to bounce.
Nevertheless, gold's long-term investment thesis remains intact. If inflation ultimately proves more challenging to control than the Fed anticipates, or if geopolitical conflicts expand leading to elevated systemic risks, gold's status as the ultimate safe-haven asset could come to the forefront again. Notably, reviewing the aggressive rate hike cycle of 2022-2023, gold prices did not experience a dramatic collapse, instead remaining within a defined range before eventually strengthening again. Therefore, the current rate hike cycle should not force sustained downside momentum, particularly given it lacks the intensity of previous tightening cycles. Looking forward, gold prices will likely continue consolidating horizontally, absorbing bearish pressures before transitioning higher toward new record highs.
On the weekly chart, gold is currently testing support at the 60-week moving average. While numerous moving average resistances loom above, the momentum indicators retain a constructive outlook. This suggests further sideways consolidation is probable, with prices potentially finding support near the trendline or the 100-week moving average. These levels could offer attractive entry points for bullish positions, awaiting the next leg higher.
On the daily chart, gold remains above the 60-day moving average support, with repeated successful defenses of this level signaling robust buying interest. Bearish momentum readings are steadily fading, indicating a propensity for a corrective rebound. Near-term upside targets include resistance at the 30-day moving average around $4,420, followed by the 200-day moving average near $4,540. On the downside, the 60-day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band continue to serve as key support zones for long positions.
The following outlines preliminary intraday support and resistance levels for reference, with precise entry and exit points to be provided through live trading updates. For gold, support is noted around $4,255 and $4,200, while resistance stands near $4,330 and $4,390. For silver, support is observed around $62.85 and $62.20, with resistance near $64.75 and $65.35.