SpaceX shares closed at USD 154.81, rising 2.60%.

The options tape showed a dominant premium-selling structure alongside a smaller bearish debit spread. The largest displayed block was a $139.65 million double short put combination expiring September 18, 2026, while a $1.75 million bear put spread using the same 205.0/200.0 strikes indicated a defined-risk downside view. Put-heavy block flow overall suggests institutional positioning remains tilted toward pressure on SPCX rather than sustained upside.

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Options Indicators

SPCX’s implied volatility is 54.05%, and with an IV percentile of 69.67%, current option pricing sits near the upper end of the neutral range, suggesting volatility expectations are moderately firm but not yet in clearly elevated territory. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 1.23, implied volatility is running above realized volatility, indicating options carry some premium versus recent actual movement, though not at an extreme level.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.94.

Large Trades

A premium-selling put spread structure worth $139.65 million was the largest displayed block, built as a same-direction double short put combination expiring September 18, 2026. The trader sold the 205.0 put and the 200.0 put, both of which were in the money against the $154.81 reference price, and the position was established for a net credit of $139.65 million. This is a short put spread-style premium collection trade rather than an outright bearish crash hedge, implying the trader is leaning on time decay and expecting the underlying to remain stable or at least avoid a disorderly downside move beyond what is already reflected. Because both legs are short puts and already in the money, the setup carries a neutral-to-bearish tone in the flow data, but strategically it is more consistent with volatility harvesting and range-bound expectations than with aggressive directional downside speculation.

A bearish put spread worth a net debit of $1.75 million was the second displayed large trade, using the September 18, 2026 205.0/200.0 strikes. The buyer purchased the 205.0 put and sold the 200.0 put, with both legs in the money relative to the current stock price, creating a classic bear put spread for a net debit of $1.75 million. This structure expresses a defined-risk downside view: the long higher-strike put benefits from further weakness, while the short lower-strike put helps finance the position and caps maximum payoff below 200.0. The trade is therefore a clearer directional bearish bet than the premium-selling structure above, signaling expectations for additional downside while controlling cost.

Overall, the large-trade picture is bearish. Although the biggest displayed transaction was a net-credit double short put structure that points more to premium collection and a range-bound outlook than to outright panic, the broader block flow is overwhelmingly concentrated in puts and put combinations with downside exposure, including multiple sizable debit put structures and a bear put spread among the featured trades. Taken together, the institutional activity suggests the market is positioned for pressure on SPCX, with traders either hedging against further weakness or directly expressing a negative directional view rather than preparing for sustained upside.

Strategy Reference

For sellers seeking low assignment probability despite the put-heavy flow, the 130.0 put expiring September 18, 2026 sits far below the 54.05% implied volatility range and would offer a more conservative premium collection point; alternatively, traders wanting defined risk without posting large margin could consider a 150.0/130.0 bear put spread rather than selling in-the-money puts outright.