Gold's Cautious Downtrend: Analyst Weighs Reversal Risks and Key Trading Levels

Deep News
Yesterday

Gold prices faced persistent pressure on Tuesday as the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.04% intraday, marking its highest level since 2007, before settling at 5.008%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, climbed to 4.676%. With the dollar and Treasury yields remaining elevated, spot gold traded sideways near the $4,300 threshold, ultimately closing 0.11% lower at $4,294.14 per ounce. Meanwhile, spot silver posted a 0.69% gain, finishing at $63.68 per ounce.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueled supply concerns, keeping international oil prices on an upward trajectory. After reports emerged that Oman and the U.S. were discussing ways to ease regional tensions, WTI crude briefly dipped before quickly recovering its losses, breaking through $102 per barrel intraday and closing 3.01% higher at $100.96. Brent crude rose 1.74%, settling at $104.96 per barrel.

Reviewing the latest gold market action, trading began at $4,296 per ounce in the morning session. After an initial pullback to $4,282.7, prices rallied strongly to a daily high of $4,317.3 before reversing sharply to a low of $4,261. The market then rebounded robustly, with the daily session closing at $4,292.5. The formation of a doji star pattern with a long lower shadow suggests gold may face renewed downward pressure. In summary, gold continues to operate in a downward oscillation after facing resistance at elevated levels. Although prices have reached prior support zones, unless a robust rebound materializes, the likelihood of extended declines remains. For today's trading, prioritizing selling on rallies while buying on dips as a secondary approach is recommended, with upside resistance seen at the $4,319-$4,361 range and downside support at $4,250-$4,200.

Turning to crude oil's technical picture, WTI opened at $101.96 per barrel, initially climbing to $104.23 before a swift pullback to a daily low of $101.18. Prices then surged to a session high of $106.75 before consolidating, with the daily close at $105.47. The long bullish candle, featuring an upper shadow slightly longer than the lower one, indicates oil remains entrenched in a bullish trend. Overall, crude is exhibiting strong upward momentum within a broad two-wave advance, currently positioned in the fourth phase of a minor wave. Unless prices convincingly break higher, a corrective pullback is likely. The trading strategy for today leans toward selling at higher levels and buying at lower levels, with resistance at $100.96-$101.6 and support at $97.3-$95.5.

For the Nasdaq, the index opened at 29,156.28, briefly rising to a daily high of 29,174.55 before a sharp decline to 28,908. After a recovery to 29,164.66, it faced a second selloff, hitting a session low of 28,888.35 before stabilizing. The daily close came in at 28,958.38, forming a large bearish candle with a long lower shadow, signaling persistent consolidation under pressure. The index remains in a high-level adjustment phase, currently testing a platform support zone. A breakdown below this level could trigger further downside, while a hold may lead to a test of resistance. Today's approach favors selling on rallies with buying on dips as a backup. Resistance is identified at 29,300-29,678, with support at 28,780-28,500.

This market commentary is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate based on their own judgment and bear the associated risks.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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