Hong Kong's three major indices weakened collectively on Monday, with tech stocks broadly under pressure and only a few sectors such as mainland property and pharmaceutical biotech managing to rise against the trend. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.01% to 24,834.12 points, with total turnover of HK$184.307 billion, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.33% to 4,379.07 points. Among Hong Kong-listed ETFs ranked by scale, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) closed down 1.17% at HK$25.44, CSOP SK Hynix Daily Leverage (2x) Product (07709) gained 3.15% to HK$43.84, and Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828) slipped 1.42% to HK$84.66.

Supply gap expectations were revised as US-Iran talks at the UN signaled a de-escalation, sending oil and gas sector ETFs into a broad decline. By the close, CCB Energy & Chemical ETF (159981.SZ) dropped 3.73% to CNY 1.678, Harvest S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159518.SZ) fell 2.46% to CNY 1.228, and CCB Oil & Gas ETF (159309.SZ) declined 2.42% to CNY 1.41. According to reports, on September 22 local time, Iran's Foreign Minister met with US President's special envoy Witkoff in New York on the sidelines of the 81st UN General Assembly for about three hours. Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, conditional on the US lifting its maritime blockade and unfreezing all assets. President Trump called the talks "very constructive," adding that another meeting has been scheduled soon. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is testing the restart of its east-west oil pipeline, which had been shut down following an attack, with sources saying several Asian refiners have received informal notice that crude shipments from the Red Sea's Yanbu port could resume shortly. International crude oil futures fell for a sixth consecutive session, with Brent's November contract down 1.09% to USD 99.25 per barrel and WTI's October contract down 1.24% to USD 94.59 per barrel. Brent lost the USD 100 level for the first time since August, accumulating a decline of more than 9% over six days. Nanhua Futures noted that the UN General Assembly window has fueled expectations of US-Iran de-escalation, prompting markets to price in a recovery in Strait shipping and triggering a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium accumulated earlier. Zhongtai Futures energy and chemical researcher Xiao Haiming analyzed that geopolitical easing is the main factor behind the current weakness in crude oil and energy chemical prices, though the Middle East situation has not fully improved, and the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could face setbacks.

The "15th Five-Year Plan" has for the first time established biopharmaceuticals as a "national emerging pillar industry," driving STAR Market innovative drug ETFs to rally against the trend. At the close, CCB STAR Innovative Drug ETF (589120.SH) rose 2.23% to CNY 0.872, Guotai STAR Innovative Drug ETF (589720.SH) advanced 2.16% to CNY 0.946, and Yinhua Innovative Drug ETF (159992.SZ) edged up 0.35% to CNY 0.870. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and nine other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Pharmaceutical Industry Development," which anchors an innovation-driven strategy and was released on September 18. The plan explicitly aims to build biopharmaceuticals into a national emerging pillar industry, proposes accelerating the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and supercomputing to drug R&D, and sets targets including revenue exceeding CNY 3.5 trillion for pharmaceutical industrial enterprises above designated size by 2030, average annual growth of more than 20% for the innovative drug industry scale, and first-in-class drugs accounting for over 25% of the global share. The National Medical Products Administration simultaneously disclosed that outbound licensing deals for China's innovative drugs have exceeded USD 120 billion in total this year, up 36% year-on-year. Guosen Securities noted that the ten-department plan establishes the national emerging pillar industry status, recommending attention to the innovative drug supply chain, benefiting companies with FIC/BIC pipelines and internationalization capabilities, as well as CXO players. Guojin Securities believes that cross-track giants are racing into AI4S drug development, with both government and regulators accelerating innovation, and order increments first flowing to upstream CXO, further solidifying the sector's growth trend.

Institutional perspectives suggest short-term market volatility may persist but downside is limited. PBI Wealth International believes that according to the Fed's September dot plot, nearly 90% of officials expect another rate hike this year, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5%, geopolitical situations are fluid, and oil prices are hovering at high levels, all of which could sustain market fluctuations in the near term. However, the risk premium for Hong Kong stocks has fallen to the 6th percentile of the past five years, leaving limited room for valuation contraction. Catalysts are set to increase in the fourth quarter: the Shenzhen APEC meeting will provide a high-level dialogue platform, third-quarter earnings will serve as a performance verification window, Anthropic's potential listing could trigger a repricing of AI-related sectors, and the Central Economic Work Conference at year-end will bring fresh policy expectations. Therefore, any short-term market pullback should be viewed as a window to position ahead of the fourth quarter, with a recommendation to accumulate positions in batches on dips.

In ETF developments, several new products made their debut. ChinaAMC Large-Cap Growth ETF (158026.SZ) listed for the first day, closing down 0.88% at CNY 1.002 with turnover of CNY 113 million. The fund tracks the Guozheng Large-Cap Growth Index, selecting about 66 leading stocks with larger market capitalizations and higher growth factor scores from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, serving as a cross-market allocation tool for the "large-cap plus growth" style factor. Dacheng ChiNext Computing Power ETF (158053.SZ) also debuted, closing down 0.89% at CNY 1.008 with turnover of CNY 190 million, while Shenwan ChiNext Computing Power ETF (158057.SZ) fell 0.78% on its first day to CNY 1.012 with turnover of CNY 159 million. Both of the latter track the ChiNext Computing Power Infrastructure Index, covering optical modules, PCB, IDC, and server hardware companies on the ChiNext board, serving as niche tools for "AI computing power upstream infrastructure," and both hold substantially similar portfolios.