Artificial intelligence has undoubtedly been one of the most dazzling sectors on the A-share market over the past three years. But a closer look reveals a shocking disparity: not all indices bearing the "AI" label have performed equally. Data shows that among five mainstream AI indices, their three-year gains rank as follows: ChiNext AI (+274.12%) > STAR-ChiNext AI (+224.04%) > AI (146.77%) > CS Artificial Intelligence (+122.49%) > STAR AI (+86.26%). The gap between the best and worst performer stands at a staggering 187.86 percentage points. Data source: Wind, statistics period from September 17, 2023 to September 16, 2026. The ChiNext AI index base date is December 28, 2018, with a release date of July 11, 2024. Its annual returns from 2021 to 2025 were 17.57%, -34.52%, 47.83%, 38.44%, and 106.35% respectively, with annualized volatility of 23.73%, 27.34%, 38.02%, 45.42%, and 41.1% over the same period. Index constituent stocks are adjusted according to the index compilation rules, and backtested historical performance does not indicate future index performance.

So why does such a huge gap exist between indices that share the "artificial intelligence" name? The answer lies hidden in the structure of their underlying holdings. Breaking down the ChiNext AI index's holdings reveals that optical module CPO sector weights account for roughly half, with the three major optical module leaders—Eoptolink Technology, Innolight Technology, and T&F Communications—combining for over 35% of the total weight, ranking first among comparable AI indices. The ChiNext AI index, which is "bathed in light," achieved its 274% gain essentially because it doesn't invest in "AI broadly" but rather targets the optical module segment within AI computing power.

Some might ask: after such a significant rally, is there still opportunity in optical modules? Recent industry signals point toward a clearer answer.

Scarcity and Capacity Expansion Coexist—The Optoelectronics Expo Confirms Industry Prosperity

Following its research at the Optoelectronics Expo, Guosheng Securities delivered a judgment of "the mountain remains a mountain." After the noise settles, technological evolution ultimately returns to the pull of fundamental industry demand and the constraints of engineering implementation. NPO was the most significant signal at this year's expo. Nearly all major optical communications manufacturers showcased NPO products, with multiple NPO modules such as 3.2T, 6.4T, and 7.2T making concentrated appearances. Leading domestic cloud vendors are also actively embracing the technology, with some having completed sample validation and expected to begin pilot deployments. Guosheng Securities believes NPO strikes a pragmatic balance between performance, operational maintenance, and ecosystem development, making it the most certain and mature solution for scale-up applications. More importantly, the buzzwords at the expo were "scarcity" and "capacity expansion." Leading manufacturers have orders booked through next year, with unprecedented expansion intensity and a simultaneous surge in inventory and advance payments. The category and capacity expansion of passive component manufacturers further confirm this trend. The strong momentum in both industry expansion and demand is a direct reflection of the optical communications prosperity cycle driven by AI. In short: short-term positioning and sentiment may fluctuate, but the long-term development trend and prosperity remain unchanged.

Goldman Sachs Raises Forecasts: It's Not Just Volume—It's Structure and Unit Price

Goldman Sachs' latest report significantly raises its global optical module forecasts: the market size for 2026-2028 is expected to reach approximately $67.7 billion, $131.4 billion, and $148.5 billion, representing upward revisions of 33%, 81%, and 115% respectively. Shipments are projected at 548 million, 691 million, and 729 million units, revised up by 21%, 31%, and 31%. While shipment volumes are only raised by 20-30%, market size is revised up by 80% or even doubled—the difference represents the value leap driven by structural upgrades. Goldman Sachs points out that this upward revision stems not only from growth in AI server volumes but also from the migration of AI server architectures toward high-speed networks and the increased number of optical modules per GPU/ASIC: AI rack-scale systems are ramping up, with global shipments rising from 19,000 racks in 2025 to 55,000 racks in 2026 (up 190%), reaching 163,000 racks by 2028. The GB300 platform upgrades its network layer to 1.6T, while the Rubin platform continues migrating toward 1.6T/3.2T. The share of ASICs in global AI chips is climbing from 50% in 2026 to 55% by 2028, with their optical interconnect demand being no less than GPU systems. On a per-chip basis, the Rubin Ultra platform raises 1.6T optical modules per GPU from 0 to 2 and 3.2T modules from 3 to 5, while Google's TPU v9 uses up to 12 1.6T optical modules per chip. Structurally, the market for 800G and above optical modules is projected at approximately $45.2 billion, $107.5 billion, and $129.5 billion for 2026-2028, with a three-year compound growth rate of about 69%. The 3.2T segment begins mass shipments in 2027, reaching 67.73 million units by 2028, accounting for roughly 55% of the global optical module market value. While same-generation products continue to see price declines, the rising share of high-speed products pushes the industry's average selling price from $123 to $204. The growth logic for optical module leaders has shifted from "volume expansion" to a dual-engine model of "structural upgrades plus rising per-unit value."

New Technologies Like CPO Catalyze Upgrades in Optical Interconnect Architecture

CPO, or co-packaged optics, simply means bringing optical components closer to the switch chip to reduce long-distance high-speed electrical signal transmission, thereby lowering power consumption and increasing bandwidth density—but this doesn't mean the entire optical module industry will disappear. A more accurate understanding is that CPO represents an upgrade direction for optical interconnect architecture, while pluggable optical modules will continue to exist long-term across different distances, network tiers, and customer requirements. AI data centers don't rely on just one type of connection—they can be broadly divided into three categories: scale-up (within-rack, high-speed switching between GPUs, where CPO and copper interconnects both have application space), scale-out (between racks, a critical scenario for high-speed pluggable optical modules), and scale-across (between data centers, where optical communication becomes even more important as distances lengthen). The future is more likely to see copper, pluggable optical modules, NPO, and CPO coexisting long-term, each handling different distances, bandwidths, power budgets, and costs. The industry value chain is being redistributed. NVIDIA's Spectrum-X Ethernet silicon photonics switches are already in full production. Using NVIDIA's disclosed supply chain as a reference, T&F Communications is the only A-share core partner officially named, responsible for laser module sub-assemblies. This sends a clear signal: the value center is shifting from "module assembly" toward upstream segments such as silicon photonics chips, precision coupling components, and external light sources. Goldman Sachs' view on CPO's near-term penetration is not particularly aggressive. While its latest model continues to raise long-term CPO demand, it remains restrained on near-term replacement speed—which actually confirms a judgment: over the next 2-3 years, the higher-certainty opportunity remains the continuous upgrade of 800G, 1.6T, and even 3.2T high-speed pluggable optical modules, while CPO's ramp-up is a slower-paced but clearly directed process.

High-Light ETFs: Capturing the Optical Module Opportunity

The "scarcity" and "capacity expansion" observed at the Optoelectronics Expo, Goldman Sachs' significant upward revision of the optical module market, and new technologies like CPO catalyzing optical interconnect architecture upgrades—three signals all point to the same conclusion: the prosperity cycle for optical modules continues, and CPO is an upgrade with clear direction but a slower tempo. For ordinary investors, rather than constantly weighing individual stocks, a more efficient approach is to use high-light index tools to gain one-click exposure to core optical module and CPO leaders. ChiNext AI ETF Hwabao (159363): Combining optical modules with AI applications, driven by both computing power and applications! Its underlying index holds over 35% in "Innolight Technology + Eoptolink Technology + T&F Communications," positioning it firmly "in the light" with a focus on optical module CPO leaders, making it a core flagbearer for AI computing power. Feeder funds: Class A 023407, Class C 023408. Data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, Wind, etc. Note: As of August 31, 2026, according to Guozheng Index, the top three constituent stocks of the ChiNext AI index are Eoptolink Technology (12.61%), Innolight Technology (11.99%), and T&F Communications (10.25%). The optical module (CPO) content comparison index is 8841258.WI. Institutional views reference: Guosheng Securities, "Insights from the Optoelectronics Expo: The Mountain Remains a Mountain."

Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant, and short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors must make rational investment decisions based on their own capital situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position and risk management. Fee disclosure for ETF funds: when investors subscribe to or redeem fund shares, the subscription/redemption agency may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees are based on actual charges by securities companies, with no sales service fee. Fee disclosure for feeder funds: Hwabao ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund Class C charges no subscription fee; redemption fee is 1.5% within 7 days and 0% for 7 days or more; sales service fee is 0.3%. Hwabao ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund Class A subscription fee is 1% for amounts below 1 million yuan, 0.6% for 1 million to 2 million yuan, and 1,000 yuan per transaction for 2 million yuan and above; redemption fee is 1.5% within 7 days and 0% for 7 days or more; no sales service fee. According to the fund manager's assessment, ChiNext AI ETF Hwabao has a risk rating of R4-medium-to-high risk, suitable for aggressive (C4) and above investors. Please refer to the sales institution for suitability matching opinions.

Risk disclosure: ChiNext AI ETF Hwabao passively tracks the ChiNext AI index, which has a base date of December 28, 2018, and a release date of July 11, 2024. Index constituent stocks are adjusted according to the index compilation rules, and backtested historical performance does not indicate future index performance. The index constituent stocks mentioned in this article are for demonstration purposes only, and descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute investment advice in any form, nor do they represent the holdings or trading activities of any fund under the manager's umbrella. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, or any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors must bear responsibility for their own independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analyses, or forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice to readers in any form, and the publisher assumes no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content herein. Fund investment carries risks; past performance of a fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance. Please invest in funds with caution.