India's oil purchasers are likely to scale back their intake of Russian crude cargoes as the risk of US sanctions rises. According to insiders involved in the relevant discussions, New Delhi may, in the near term, cap Russian crude imports at 20% to 30% of the nation's total crude purchases, a move aimed at shedding its status as the largest seaborne buyer of Russian oil. These individuals requested anonymity as the deliberations are not yet public.

The heightened threat stems from newly enacted US sanctions legislation, which boosts the risk of punitive tariffs for countries that buy Russian crude. Indian refiners, currently finalizing their November crude cargoes, plan to reduce Russian oil purchases while actively scouting for alternative supply sources.

As the world's third-largest crude importer, India has seen Russian oil account for more than half of its imports in recent months. However, data from Kpler indicates that India's September Russian crude imports are projected at roughly 1.9 million barrels per day, representing over 35% of total imports—the lowest level since April.

Replacing Russian crude supply presents considerable challenges: Moscow's export volumes far exceed those of Venezuela and Iran, while other substitute grades come at a premium. Indian officials remain in ongoing talks with their US counterparts.