On September 14, Marathon Petroleum rose 3.11% in regular trading, trading at $407.96/share, with turnover of $189 million. The rally was driven by a dual catalyst of a major investment bank upgrade and escalating Middle East supply disruption fears.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Marathon Petroleum from $265 to $453, maintaining an Overweight rating. The new target implies further upside from the current level. This follows a string of bullish analyst actions, including UBS raising its target to $450 with a Buy rating and Piper Sandler setting a $462 target earlier this month. The FactSet consensus mean target has risen to $372.47.

Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia's main oil pipeline to the Red Sea has been disrupted. If not restored within days, global oil supply could fall by up to 4%. The IEA reported Saudi August oil supply dropped to its lowest in over 30 years, with global supply projected to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day. The supply tightening provides a significant tailwind for refining margins at companies like Marathon Petroleum, which reported Q2 refinery utilization at 94% and adjusted EPS of $17.73, far exceeding the $13.73 consensus estimate.

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