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Industry conditions and price trends: Steel mills are currently facing margin pressures, with short-term output likely to stay at low levels. The pace of demand recovery during the peak season warrants close monitoring, while the near-term industry fundamentals may show a weak picture on both the supply and demand sides, with inventory drawdown speed being a key factor to track.
Copper: With uncertainty lingering over potential U.S. tariffs on copper, attention should be paid to how American economic data and expectations of rate hikes could influence prices.
Aluminum: The upward scope for aluminum prices continues to be shaped by the performance of domestic peak-season demand and overseas rate hike expectations. Progress on overseas capacity expansion and the inventory stocking pace of domestic downstream buyers are also factors to observe.
Gold: Bullion prices have pulled back as rate hike expectations intensify, yet downside is cushioned by support from central bank purchases. Shifts in U.S. economic data and rate hike forecasts will be critical.
Lithium: The logic of low inventory support has shown signs of uncertainty. The current lithium carbonate market is marked by intensifying speculation, with close attention needed on stocking activities during the peak season.
Rare earths: Given the pre-holiday restocking demand from magnet material producers, praseodymium neodymium oxide prices could see upward momentum, though the actual realization of downstream orders still requires verification.
Strategy for the week: The restoration progress in the Strait of Hormuz, overseas economic data, and the Federal Reserve's stance are set to be key macro factors. Recommended segment focuses include gold, where price support remains solid after the deep correction in the first half of the year, with the September FOMC meeting serving as a pivotal event. In the long term, factors like central bank purchases and the reassessment of dollar credibility provide stable backing. For copper, tight mine supply combined with the traditional domestic peak-season outlook could improve fundamentals, with the forthcoming decision on U.S. copper tariffs being a key variable. In aluminum, stalled U.S.-Iran talks continue to disrupt Middle East capacity, while domestic capacity has limited room for growth; if peak-season demand proves robust, industry fundamentals could brighten. For lithium, solid downstream energy storage demand and limited near-term restart of domestic capacity suggest the industry may outperform expectations. Additionally, the rare earth and tungsten sectors hold strategic resource value amid frequent global geopolitical events and are driven by demand from emerging applications.
In summary, we maintain a "positive" rating for both the steel and non-ferrous metals industries. We continue to recommend a "overweight" stance on Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), China Rare Earth (000831), Zijin Mining (601899), and Chalco (601600). Risks include fluctuations in raw material prices, weaker-than-expected downstream demand, and geopolitical disruptions. These insights are based on the research report "Morning Meeting Summary" from the research institute, dated September 16, 2026. The views and information in this subscription are for professional investors who meet the regulatory standards. If you are not a professional investor client of the firm, please disregard this content to manage investment risk. This article is a repost from a cooperating media platform; it is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.