Economists surveyed now indicate that the European Central Bank will postpone its final interest rate hike until December, aiming to curb inflationary pressures stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The consensus among surveyed analysts is that the ECB's Governing Council will raise its deposit rate to 2.75% during its last meeting of the year, forgoing an opportunity for an increase at the end of October. This marks a shift from the previous survey, where experts had predicted that a 25-basis-point hike in September would conclude the current cycle.

Where things stand now

In recent weeks, expectations have changed dramatically following a surge in oil and gas prices. The central bank also revised its inflation projections upward last week, reinforcing the view that further policy tightening is necessary to achieve its 2% target. Investors are currently betting on at least three more rate increases.

According to insiders, officials are also anticipating additional tightening, although they have not yet formed a definitive stance on the timing or scale of such actions. Gabriel Makhlouf of the Irish central bank told Bloomberg Television on Thursday that during periods of uncertainty, "every meeting is live."

Forecasters in the Bloomberg survey predict the rate will remain at 2.75% until December 2027, at which point the ECB is expected to begin cutting rates.