1. At the close of trading on September 24, light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.64 to settle at $92.16 per barrel, a gain of 1.81%. London Brent crude futures for November delivery climbed $3.83 to settle at $103.08 per barrel, an increase of 3.86%. As of the 2:30 AM close on September 24, the main SC crude oil contract gained 5.02%, settling at 730 yuan per barrel.
2. The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that diesel export restrictions will be implemented on a voluntary basis rather than through a comprehensive ban. Energy Secretary Wright said, "We are trying to avoid that sort of blunt government policy tool, while also understanding the complexities of refining operations." The Trump administration will not impose a full prohibition on diesel exports but will instead implement voluntary restriction measures. The government will not halt all diesel exports, as the U.S. needs to continue ensuring global diesel supply, but simultaneously must alter the trajectory of domestic prices, and the relevant plan will be carried out on a voluntary basis. President Trump stated on Tuesday that the administration is considering restricting diesel exports, which has created tension within the oil and gas industry. The sector has been striving to avoid an export ban, warning that such a move could trigger a series of unintended consequences, leading to constrained U.S. diesel and gasoline supplies and pushing prices significantly higher.
3. According to the EIA report, for the week ending September 18, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.55 million barrels per day to 3.281 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production slipped by 5,000 barrels per day to 13.939 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the strategic reserve, increased by 2.969 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a rise of 0.7%. The four-week average supply of U.S. oil products was 20.573 million barrels per day, up 0.52% from the same period last year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks declined by 405,000 barrels to 284.6 million barrels, a drop of 0.14%. Commercial crude oil imports, excluding the strategic reserve, averaged 5.877 million barrels per day, down 1.181 million barrels per day from the previous week.
4. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will keep its October price for Umm Lulu crude on par with Murban crude. The October Murban crude price has been set at $90.58 per barrel.
5. Fitch Ratings projects that the oil market will return to a significant surplus in 2027. Although the agency expects oil prices to decline next year, it has raised its 2027 price forecast from $65 to $70 per barrel, reflecting the longer-than-expected duration of the Middle East conflict and its impact on the geopolitical risk premium. Analysts acknowledge that these forecasts carry a high degree of uncertainty. Assuming the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement in the first quarter of 2027, supply-demand fundamentals could play a more prominent role in determining oil prices. On the upside, geopolitical uncertainty could push average oil prices to $85 per barrel next year; on the downside, a rapid supply recovery could drive prices down to $55 per barrel.
6. Europe is facing a surge in diesel costs, with an additional 200 million euros spent each day. The latest analysis shows that among major economies, Europe has been hit hardest by high diesel prices. The European NGO "Transport & Environment," analyzing data from the European Commission, found that European drivers are currently paying 40% more for diesel than at the start of the year. Based on a 50-liter tank, this equates to roughly 30 euros extra per fill-up. By comparison, gasoline prices rose 28% in 2026. Across Europe, diesel costs have increased by approximately 203 million euros per day since the conflict erupted. This estimate does not account for the impact of fuel tax cuts, which ultimately need to be compensated through other tax measures or increased borrowing. Diesel accounts for more than 40% of oil consumption in European economies, higher than any other region and double the share in the U.S., making Europe particularly vulnerable to rising diesel prices.
7. Asian crude oil imports have hit a post-Iran-conflict high but remain 13% below pre-war levels. In September, Asian crude imports rose to their highest level since the outbreak of the Iran war, yet even with this recovery, they remain approximately 13% below pre-conflict levels. Kpler estimates that Asia, the world's largest oil-consuming region, will import 23.96 million barrels per day in September, up from 23.38 million barrels per day in August and the highest level since February. Asia's crude imports from the Middle East in September reached 12.56 million barrels per day, up from 11.66 million barrels per day in August and more than 5 million barrels per day above the post-conflict low of 7.12 million barrels per day recorded in April. Asian crude imports have been on a recovery trend since falling to their lowest level in over a decade in April. However, despite the recent rebound, imports remain clearly below pre-conflict levels. In the three months before the conflict, Asian crude imports averaged 27.55 million barrels per day.
8. The U.S. government is crafting a plan to suspend diesel exports for 90 days in an attempt to mitigate the adverse effects of high energy prices on Republican midterm elections. This policy proposal has sparked significant division within the administration and the oil industry, with officials and industry players generally warning that any short-term price relief could be offset by subsequent fuel price increases. Recently, the U.S. war against Iran and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have pushed diesel prices to elevated levels. Energy Secretary Wright, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and Interior Secretary Burgum have all opposed a comprehensive ban. Wright believes that simply banning diesel exports "will not solve the problem," because U.S. refineries simultaneously produce gasoline and jet fuel, and restricting diesel exports could lead to reduced refinery output, driving up prices for other fuels. Some Republican lawmakers from agricultural states have recently urged the administration to take action to lower diesel costs. Currently, Trump is inclined to announce relevant measures before the end of the weekend, though the final decision remains subject to change.
Investment Logic
Recent firmness in tanker freight rates is primarily driven by longer shipping distances due to rerouting and Saudi Arabia's significant increase in ship-to-ship transfer operations in the Gulf of Oman. The rise in freight costs has not only substantially increased refinery procurement expenses but has also widened the spread between WTI and Brent. The Brent pricing benchmark is essentially anchored to WTI Midland plus the freight cost from inland transport to Northwest Europe. If tensions in the Middle East persist, high tanker freight rates are unlikely to ease in the near term.
Strategy
Geopolitical factors and market sentiment could further push oil prices higher in the short term, but demand-side negative feedback cannot sustain elevated prices. Consider establishing short positions on price strength while simultaneously purchasing call options for position protection.
Risk Factors
Downside risks: De-escalation of the Middle East conflict, reopening of the strait, global economic crisis.
Upside risks: China demand recovery exceeding expectations, further deterioration of the Red Sea and Middle East situations.