Last week, spot gold in London settled at $4,377 per ounce, up 0.7% week-on-week, while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 947 yuan per gram, gaining 1.1% over the same period. The September Federal Reserve meeting delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate hike, but the dot plot released this time signaled a more aggressive tightening stance than the rate decision itself. Among the 18 officials who submitted projections, 16 expect at least one more rate increase by year-end, with four anticipating two additional hikes, and none forecasting any rate cut this year. For 2027, most committee members see rates holding steady or rising by one more increment.

The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) also supports this hawkish path: the 2026 GDP growth forecast was revised up from 2.2% to 2.3%, the unemployment rate was cut sharply from 4.3% to 4.1%, and core PCE inflation was raised from 3.3% to 3.4%. Stronger growth, a tighter labor market, and higher inflation, combined with Warsh's view that current financial conditions are not restrictive enough, all lay the groundwork for further tightening. At the press conference, Warsh maintained the hawkish framework from his Jackson Hole speech, clearly signaling a commitment to defending the inflation target—stating that underlying inflation must move toward 2% at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace.

Following the announcement, gold prices fell quickly in response to the hawkish tone, but rebounded sharply over the next two days, exhibiting the classic pattern of bad news being priced in and then unwound. Current rate futures indicate that markets expect three more rate hikes before mid-next year. We believe market expectations for further hikes are already quite full, possibly even excessive, making it harder for these expectations to be revised upward further. As a result, the negative pressure appears to have been largely exhausted for now. Although the U.S. economy maintains overall resilience, its internal structure shows a pronounced K-shaped divergence, and inflation is set to decline naturally over the medium term given the high base effect. Moreover, the U.S. fiscal burden and continued intervention from the Trump administration will likely make it more difficult for the Fed to tighten further.

Additionally, the Fed's willingness to act sooner with modest rate hikes to address inflation risks could reduce the likelihood of more aggressive tightening later. Looking ahead, this week falls into a macro data lull, so short-term gold price movements may be driven more by Middle East tensions and oil prices. In mid-September, oil prices hit multi-year highs due to simultaneous disruptions at two major global energy chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—but the latest developments show signs of de-escalation, which has helped pull oil prices lower. Over the medium to long term, the persistent deterioration of the U.S. fiscal deficit, the intractable debt problem, and continued central bank gold purchases amid de-dollarization trends all reinforce the case for gold as a hedge against dollar credit risk.

Key signals to watch in the coming week for gold investors include: (1) developments in U.S.-Iran relations; and (2) diplomatic summit meetings between leaders. For investors looking to allocate to gold through public funds, Huaan Fund offers a comprehensive suite of gold-related products. Gold ETF Huaan (518880) closely tracks the domestic spot gold price and serves as an efficient tool for on-exchange investors. Gold ETF Feeder A (000216), Feeder C (000217), and Feeder I (022653) provide convenient subscription and redemption channels for off-exchange investors, particularly those with regular investment plans or medium-to-long-term allocation needs. Class A suits long-term holders, Class C is tailored for short-to-medium-term trading, and Class I is designed for short-term trading. Gold Stock ETF Huaan (159321) focuses on upstream listed companies in the gold supply chain, aiming to capture the upside elasticity of gold stocks alongside rising gold prices, making it suitable for investors seeking higher potential returns within gold assets.

Regarding fee structures, for ETF products, when investors handle cash subscriptions or redemptions, sales institutions may charge a fee or commission of no more than 0.5%, which includes fees levied by exchanges and clearing institutions. For Gold ETF Feeder A (000216), subscription fees are 0.60% for single amounts below 1 million yuan, 0.40% for amounts from 1 million to under 3 million yuan, 0.15% for amounts from 3 million to under 5 million yuan, and a flat 1,000 yuan per transaction for amounts of 5 million yuan or more. Redemption fees are 1.50% for holding periods under 7 days, 0.10% for periods from 7 days to under 1 year, and 0.00% for periods of 1 year or longer. The management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%. For Gold ETF Feeder C (000217), the subscription fee is 0.00%. Redemption fees are 1.50% for holding periods under 7 days, 0.10% for periods from 7 days to under 30 days, and 0.00% for periods of 30 days or longer. The management fee is 0.50%, the custody fee is 0.10%, and the sales service fee is 0.35%. For Gold ETF Feeder I (022653), the subscription fee is 0.00%. Redemption fees are 1.50% for holding periods under 7 days and 0.00% for periods of 7 days or longer. The management fee is 0.50%, the custody fee is 0.10%, and the sales service fee is 0.10%.

Risk warnings: Investors should be mindful of the specific risks of investing in gold-themed funds, including the risk of gold market volatility, the risk of divergence between fund portfolio returns and domestic spot gold price returns, and investment risks in the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot market. The gold stock ETF is an equity fund that primarily invests in constituent stocks of the underlying index and backup constituent stocks, carrying risk-return characteristics similar to the index. It may also invest in stocks under the Stock Connect scheme, which involves exchange rate risks and specific risks arising from differences in investment environment, targets, market systems, and trading rules under the Stock Connect mechanism. Fund management companies do not guarantee profits or minimum returns, and past performance does not predict future results. The operating history of funds in China is relatively short and may not reflect all stages of stock market development. Market risk exists, and investors should proceed with caution and bear their own risks. Before investing, investors should carefully read the Fund Contract and Prospectus and other fund legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of fund products, and make independent investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and objectives, while considering the suitability recommendations of sales institutions.