Singapore's annual growth rate to stabilise at 2.7% for the next decade, amid wider divergence in Southeast Asia

Kwan Wei Kevin Tan

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Singapore's average annual growth rate is expected to stabilise at around 2.7% for the next decade, says DBS Group Holdings, Bain & Company and Vriens & Partners in a new report.Singapore's average ...

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The latest forecast is slightly lower than the previous one given in the 2024 edition of the report which expects an average annual growth rate of 5.1% from 2024 to 2034.\n\"We're not being naive. We're not being pollyannaish,\" says Taimur Baig, DBS chief economist and a co-author of the report. \"We say that ASEAN can grow at 4.8% over the next decade, while taking into account inevitable efforts around tech disruption, around geo-economic fragmentation, and possibly issues around politics and economics in the region.\"\nAccording to the report, Vietnam is expected to maintain its status as the region's growth leader, with an average annual growth rate of 6.2% on sustained foreign direct investment and productivity gains. This is followed by its neighbours the Philippines (5.8%), Indonesia (5.4%) and Malaysia (4.3%). Thailand, however, is lagging behind its peers. The country is expected to have the lowest growth rate of 2.2% due to its fragmented political environment and aging population.\n\n\"Southeast Asia's projected 4.8% growth through 2035 appears achievable, though the regional average masks markedly different narratives,\" says Ravi Vijayaraghavan, senior partner at Bain & Company and a co-author of the report.\nThe divergence in outcomes, Ravi says, stems from the different policy choices that have been adopted by each of Southeast Asia's largest economies. Ravi's co-author, founder and managing partner of Vriens & Partners Hans Vriens notes that each country is leveraging on their respective strengths.\n\"For example, in Vietnam, renewed and politically-empowered leadership seems determined to achieve high economic growth,\" Vriens adds. \"Malaysia has been a winner of the data centre and hardware boom, but its pursuit of semiconductor value-chain upgrades faces challenges at a different level.\"\nVriens says that Singapore is able to enjoy a \"stability premium\" given its safe-haven status. This is particularly valuable given the heightened global volatility. Indonesia's government, on the other hand, is having trouble rolling out its policy agenda because of a congested decision-making process.\n\nPictured on stage: Lim Him Chuan (left), country head of DBS Singapore, and Tan See Leng (right), Minister for Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry). Photo: Kwan Wei Kevin Tan/The Edge Singapore\nMinister for Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) Tan See Leng said at the report's launch that he was not too concerned about the different rates of growth among the six countries. Tan shared his views about the region's economic outlook in a dialogue with Lim Him Chuan, country head of DBS Singapore. \n\"I'm not so focused on the different rates of growth. In fact, if anything at all, some of the economies that are growing faster can anchor even more foreign direct investment capital coming in here, more companies setting up regional headquarters [and] making important investment decisions here,\" Tan says.\n\"That would [create] a multiplier effect on the surrounding economies around us,\" Tan adds. \"The key thing is how do we ensure that the countries that are proceeding faster can be integrated to the other economies [and] neighbouring states, so that they can be uplifted simultaneously.\"\nTrade: Region's greatest strength and vulnerability\nSoutheast Asia stands out for its high dependence on trade, the report says. Nearly 90% of the region's GDP comes from trade, more than double the global average of 41%. This may be the region's greatest strength but it can also become a potential vulnerability given rising protectionism and trade tensions between the US and China.\n\"Despite their heterogeneity, Southeast Asian economies remain deeply interconnected through trade, investment, energy, and technology,\" says DBS's Taimur. \nChina's share of imports across Southeast Asia has been rising, and it has become the region's dominant source country. The region is also demonstrating a greater reliance on Chinese components and equipment amid an expansion in regional manufacturing.\nInterestingly, Southeast Asia's exports to the US have actually increased across the board. US tariffs on China have actually expanded the range of products that Vietnam can send to the US market.\nNonetheless, the report warns that recent export gains are not broad-based in nature and have been sector-specific such as in electronics and AI infrastructure. Even though investors continue to remain bullish on AI, the technology has not yet translated into productivity improvements for the wider economy.\n\"Ultimately, growth outcomes will be influenced by external forces but largely shaped by the ability of each country to build the institutional credibility, improve energy reliability, and leverage AI transformation to convert potential into sustainable growth,\" says Bain & Company's Ravi.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}