The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0608 ET - Palm oil closed lower in Asia. Prices were likely weighed by weakness overnight in rival edible oils and potential profit-taking, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a note. Kenanga pegs support and resistance for the December futures contract at 4,935 ringgit a ton and 5,025 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 58 ringgit to 4,940 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0442 ET - Middle East countries investing in oil pipelines to diversify export routes remains useful but not risk-free, J.P. Morgan analysts write after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was hit. The attack doesn't invalidate the regional strategy of building alternative export routes but does highlight how physical diversification alone can't eliminate geopolitical risk, they say. "Protecting hundreds of kilometers of energy infrastructure remains challenging, suggesting that durable regional de-escalation and security arrangements ultimately provide a more effective solution than additional infrastructure alone," they say. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0341 ET - Gold slips after trading higher in early Asia trade. Its price trajectory is increasingly dependent on the pace of U.S. interest increases, MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. The Fed hiked rates Wednesday after higher energy prices and stronger-than-expected underlying inflation added to price pressures. Inflation and elevated Treasury yields limit gold's upside despite geopolitical and safe-haven providing support, she says. In New York, the precious metal falls 0.5% to $4,365.50 a troy ounce. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0155 ET - Carnaby's fiscal results are immaterial for its stock now that it has agreed to a takeover by gold producer Evolution Mining, says MA Moelis Australia. "What the results do show is that the company continued to spend on exploration through the year, and were able to uncover some exciting incremental additions as a result," such as the Miniboom discovery, MA says. It expects the all-stock deal with Evolution to close as planned in November. In the meantime, Carnaby will likely trade as a proxy for Evolution and therefore the gold price, it says. According to FactSet, the consensus price target on Evolution is A$13.50/share, indicating a price around A$0.92/share for Carnaby, MA says. It has a buy rating and a A$1.30 target on the stock. Shares are down 3.4% at A$0.86. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0126 ET - Citi comes away from South32's Hermosa tour more confident in the Taylor project under construction. Both shafts are near primary production level and first sales remain on track for mid-2028, says the bank. Roughly 80% of the US$3.3 billion budget is contracted, with about US$230 million of contingency intact, it adds. "In our view, capex overrun risk is very low," Citi says. Beyond Taylor, growth options are being quantified, while overhead savings leave room for higher shareholder returns, it says. Citi reiterates a buy rating and a A$6.00/share price target. The stock is down 3.6% at A$4.83. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2331 ET - Copper edges higher in early Asian trade. The base metal sector likely found support from investors, tracking some relief in U.S. stocks and bonds, despite signs of easing tightness in the sector, ANZ Research writes in a note. However, cash contracts have been trading at a discount compared to the three-months futures contracts, likely due to U.S. traders paring back buying on reports of the White House possibly delaying a decision regarding import tariffs on refined metal, ANZ says. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.1% higher at $14,242.50 a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
2248 ET - Palm oil rises in Asian trading thanks to bargain hunting. Technical analysis suggests crude palm oil futures could remain in positive territory although momentum has moderated following the recent pullback, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Prices are expected to consolidate with an upside bias as long as they hold above 4,900 ringgit a ton, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is up 45 ringgit at 5,043 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2239 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trading despite a fundamentally weak outlook. Demand remains subdued, with low end-user consumption and widespread losses among steel mills fueling expectations of production cuts and a negative feedback loop for iron ore demand, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. Domestic port arrivals have increased from the previous period, while miners' shipments have also rebounded to year-to-date highs, pointing to ample overseas supply, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 0.3% at 710.5 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2006 ET - Gold edges up in early Asian trade after slipping in the wake of the Fed's first rate hike in over three years. Higher rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, though markets had largely priced in the move, taking some sting out of the reaction. Expectations of how many more hikes lie ahead will set the tone for gold moving forward. Oxford Economics expects the Fed to tighten again in December before moving to the sidelines for an extended pause. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist, says inflation will rise over the next month. But the energy price shock, higher rates and potential AI impacts will put pressure on the labor market, helping bring inflation back to target sooner than Fed officials think. Gold is up 0.2% at $4,269 an ounce. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
1707 ET - Live cattle futures fall for a second straight session, with choice and select boxed beef cuts off 27 cents and $1.79 per hundredweight, respectively. "High gas prices have consumers buying the cheapest beef," Chris Lehner of ADM Investor Services says in a note. "High diesel prices are costing feedlots more to deliver cattle and packers more to deliver beef" and so far "consumers aren't seeing cheaper beef prices." December cattle fall 1.4% on CME to $2.202 a pound. Lean hogs are mixed with October down 0.5% at 78.675 cents a pound and the December contract up 0.4% at 69.95 cents a pound.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1643 ET - Oil futures give back some gains after rising to four-month highs on extended risks to supply routes out of the Middle East. "We're seeing the markets pricing in the higher risk associated with beliefs that the conflict could continue longer," says Angie Gildea, global head of oil and gas at KPMG. Damage to the Saudi pipeline, drawdowns in SPRinventories and increased Chinese buying "is factoring into the pricing." SPR withdrawals can't go on forever, "so at some point we get into some real challenges," Gildea adds. WTI settles down 3.2% at $102.43 a barrel and Brent falls 2.7% to $105.83. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1525 ET - U.S. natural gas futures give up early gains and settle lower with current heat expected to give way to cooler weather as the month progresses, reducing power-sector demand. The EIA's inventory report due Thursday is expected to show a below-normal storage build for last week, shrinking the surplus over the five-year average but still leaving stocks looking comfortable ahead of the winter. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey expect a 49 Bcf injection, putting inventories at 3,303 Bcf or 123 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average. Nymex natural gas settles down 1% at $2.891/mmBtu.