As people clamored for Pokémon's 30th-anniversary card set, Mizuho analysts noted long lines and sold-out items at Target stores
Shares of Target are up 63% so far this year on hopes for a turnaround - but the stock is still well off highs reached in 2021.
Target's efforts to ride a booming collectibles market appeared to pay off this week, as customers rushed to its stores to buy Pokémon's new 30th-anniversary card set, Mizuho analysts said.
Target (TGT) has become "a collector destination for new product drops," the analysts said in a research note earlier this week, when the new Pokémon cards hit shelves. Upon visiting several stores in New York and New Jersey, they found lines of more than 100 people waiting to get the cards, with limits being placed on purchases. They noted that boxes of the cards online sold out "almost immediately."
"We understand trading cards represents a small sliver of the business" for Target, "likely in the 1% to 2% range of total revenue," the Mizuho analysts, led by David Bellinger, said in their note. "However, compressing significant growth within this category ... into a shortened time frame could further help [third-quarter] results."
Other retailers including Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST) and Five Below (FIVE) also stand to benefit from the card craze, the analysts said.
The new Pokémon card set features new illustrated rare cards, as well as some with foil finishes. It also contains cards from the game's classic collection.
Those new cards land amid a surge in popularity for decades-old games like Pokémon and Hasbro's (HAS) Magic: The Gathering, with the pandemic and turn-of-the-century nostalgia helping to bring some older players back. New releases - including Magic card sets featuring characters from "Final Fantasy" and "The Hobbit" - have drawn new players.
Card-game makers have also put more focus on releasing rare and limited-edition cards, helping retain the interest of collectors and driving card prices higher on the secondary market. On social media, creators increasingly talk about those cards as investable assets, complete with price charts and the occasional comparison to the S&P 500 SPX.
The Mizuho analysts estimated that the U.S. trading-card market was close to $10 billion to $20 billion in size. The industry's current growth, they noted, was "unprecedented."
"The convergence of recent innovation, a craving for nostalgia and millennial consumers entering higher-earning years are all driving forces," the analysts said.
Target, meanwhile, has been looking for ways to revive sales growth, as shoppers have sought out cheaper necessities at rivals like Walmart. Its turnaround efforts have included more prominent displays of things like trading cards and toys.
During the chain's earnings call last month, Chief Merchandising Officer Cara Sylvester called out trading cards - as well as an earlier rollout of Pokémon-themed clothing, accessories and other items - as something that was working well for the company.
"In pop culture, we have introduced an entirely new fandom experience and destination that leans into things like trading cards and collectibles, but also exclusive collaborations, into one cohesive experience," Sylvester said.
Collectibles have helped other struggling retailers. GameStop's (GME) quarterly results this month showed that it booked more sales from collectibles - which include things like trading cards and action figures - than videogames.
Shares of Target were up 3.3% on Thursday. The stock is up more than 63% so far this year, but well off highs reached in 2021.
-Bill Peters