The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1402 ET - As he did in June, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh refrained from submitting a dot to the Fed's forward-looking September dot plot. But the other 18 dots for 2026 tell a hawkish tale. All but two of those officials think that today's rate increase won't be the last. Twelve officials see one more hike by the end of the year, and four officials see two more. So for the vast majority of Fed officials, the going assumption is that today's rate hike isn't a one-and-done affair. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1351 ET - Canada's housing market stalled in August after five straight months of gains, with resales dipping 0.7% on-month to return to May levels. Royal Bank economist Rachel Battaglia notes the pullback coincided with an escalation in trade tensions, which looks to have rattled buyer confidence while encouraging more sellers to list. Battaglia says it appears to be more of a pause than an inflection point, and stabilization is expected in the back half of 2026 and into 2027 as households navigate tariff headwinds and sentiment recovers. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1342 ET - Canada's ambition to expand non-U.S. exports relies heavily on sector-specific growth opportunities, according to CIBC's Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld. While opportunities exist in machinery, mining and aircraft, Shenfeld notes that major shifts like LNG exports face longer timelines. "There are longer term aspirations to get Canadian LNG to Europe... but a lot of infrastructure would have to come into place, over several years, to do that," he says. Beyond energy, Shenfeld notes that Canadian defence sector is ripe for export, as well as nuclear technology and uranium. In the latter, however, he cautions that it will "depend on the EU's receptiveness to nuclear power." While U.S. tariffs may force Canadian exporters to look elswhere, building the physical and industrial capacity to capture them remains a gradual process. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1341 ET - Bitcoin's decline after the crypto-friendly Clarity Act's defeat in Congress has been relatively shallow, analysts at Glassnode say in a report. "Given the news, the fall is small," they say. It appears that new buyers have gone quiet, cutting off the flow of money that had been driving up Bitcoin in the last month, but holders aren't rushing to sell either, they say. Coins are being taken off of exchanges, a move that happens when traders aren't looking to sell their holdings, the analysts say. There is also a wall of "buy" orders sitting within 10% of the current price, which would be triggered if the price drops further and prevent further drawdowns, they say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1334 ET - In California, sales of existing, single-family homes and the statewide median home price both rose in August, according to the California Association of Realtors. Sales last month were up 2.4% from July and up 1.4% from August 2025. The statewide median home price was $901,420, a rise of 1.6% from the prior month and up from the $900,620 figure recorded in August of last year. Buyers remained engaged during the month, "but the recent rise in mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty could create some headwinds as we move into the fall," says C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)

1323 ET - An expected Fed hike is more likely to solidify the central bank's independence from politics than to significantly curb inflation, Diamond Hill's Henry Song says. "I'm still trying to work out whether Chairman Warsh wants to be going head-to-head with the president this early in his tenure." Song will be watching for indications of whether a hike would be a one-off or the beginning of a cycle. He says a hold could be justified by macro indicators, but it could be interpreted as Warsh bending under political pressure, in which case long-term yields would rise. Futures markets price 93% odds of a hike, according to CME. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1251 ET - The crypto-friendly Clarity Act is officially dead in Congress after falling short yesterday on a vote to push the bill to a floor debate, StoneX analyst Mark Palmer says in a note. That means the uncertainty that has lingered over much of the crypto space isn't going away, he says. Altcoins and decentralized finance protocols, which got hit the hardest under the previous SEC administration, are going to be impacted by the bill's defeat the most, Palmer says. But that doesn't mean the industry's growth will grind to a halt, he says. The work that Congress didn't finish now falls to the SEC and CFTC to sort out, which they have been preparing for, Palmer says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1240 ET - The SEC isn't shying away from crypto regulation, even after the failure of a key bill that would have set the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. "With or without legislation, we will act decisively within the SEC's statutory authority to deliver certainty for American investors and for the entrepreneurs shaping our technological future," SEC Chair Paul Atkins says in a post to X. The Clarity Act, which would have helped usher digital assets into the mainstream financial system, fell short of the votes required to advance in Congress in a Tuesday vote. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1139 ET - Uncertainty in bond markets calls for allocation in short-duration assets with appealing yields, Diamond Hill's Henry Song says. He expects today's Fed decision to have little impact on war-driven inflation, keeping the outlook cloudy. Treasury Secretary Bessent's effort to control long-term yields are also futile as markets "have called his bluff," Song says. Song's strategy is to buy "a lot of short-duration assets that's very yieldy right now" and be nimble. If rates really go higher, he can redeploy the cash when bonds mature. "It's kind of this dance of trying to maintain the yield in the portfolio at the same time giving ourselves future flexibility." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1105 ET - The Federal Reserve could dampen rate-rise expectations in its decision at 1800 GMT, although any dollar selloff is likely to prove limited, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The Fed should lift rates by 25 basis points but risks are skewed towards the central bank undermining the market's conviction on rate increases going forward as too much policy tightening is priced into next year, she says. While the dollar could fall in the near-term, it's unlikely to come under heavy selling pressure given issues elsewhere including the U.K.'s limited fiscal headroom and the eurozone's energy importer status, she says. Rabobank expects the euro to trade near $1.16 in one to three months, compared to $1.1535 currently. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1038 ET - Equity markets have historically been able to weather the transition to fiscal tightening after a prolonged pause in rate changes, LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist says in a note. In fact, outcomes have been especially favorable when the Federal Reserve cut rates before the pause, he says. In those instances, the S&P 500 delivered an average return of 7.8% in the 12 months after the first post-pause rate hike, compared with 0.8% for pauses preceded by a rate hike, Turnquist says. The Fed cut rates back in December before this latest round of holding rates steady, which is expected to end with a rate hike later today. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1030 ET - In August, the typical renter paid $1,066 less per month than the typical home buyer, according to Zillow. Rent was $1,948 while the typical mortgage payment plus taxes and insurance totaled $3,014--a gap that has grown as mortgage costs have risen faster than rents. For renters who can set that difference aside, it could translate into meaningful long-term savings. At $1,066 a month, renters save $12,792 a year over owning a home, and those who invest it at the rate of the 10-year Treasury yield earn an additional $322 in the first year alone. Assuming rents and home buying costs remain stable, that could turn into a cumulative total of $72,000 after five years--real wealth built without the hidden costs of homeownership like closing costs, maintenance and more.