Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0405 GMT - Iron ore is lower in early Asian trading. While demand is still weak, port arrivals have surged due partly to active supply outside China in recent weeks, Baocheng Futures say in a research note. Supply in China has also been steady, it notes. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.1% at 714.50 yuan a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0315 GMT - MA Moelis Australia thinks Luca Mining is getting Capstone Copper's Cozamin mine at an attractive price. The up to US$385 million sale compares to MA's valuation of US$631 million. "However, we are conscious of potential discrepancies between our price assumptions and those used by both CSC and the party acquiring the asset," it says. The price might also suggest either a shorter mine life or higher exit obligations than MA was estimating. "Regardless, the difference between our valuation assumption and the upfront sale price is arguably modest" versus Capstone's over A$11 billion market value, it says. The deal also offers some potential benefits for Capstone, including reducing operating risk, says MA. It has a buy rating and A$16.40 target on Capstone. Shares are up 1.4% at A$14.76. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0301 GMT - At first glance, Bellevue Gold's FY result looks better than expected, says MA Moelis Australia. It cites the treatment of operating leases between the quarterly update and annual fiscal result as the reason. "BGL include various lease expenses in operating costs as per AISC [all-in sustaining cost] reporting guidelines, which are subsequently treated as a finance expense in the formal accounts," says MA. "We clearly need to find a way to better reflect this in our estimates." Bellevue's result is otherwise "fairly clean" and it remains well placed to close its hedge book soon. That would give a big boost to both earnings and cash flow, which could drive a continued re-rating, MA says. It has a buy rating and 1.95 Australian dollar target on the stock. Shares are up 5.5% at A$1.635. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0245 GMT - Palm oil rises in Asian trade, driven by weather uncertainty that could weigh on output and support prices, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council says in a note. It expects CPO prices to stay above 4,700 ringgit a ton in October and through the rest of the year. However, key downside risks include easing energy prices and further inventory accumulation, as palm oil production typically reaches its seasonal peak in September or October, the council says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is up 5 ringgit at 4,862 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0240 GMT - Copper is higher in early Asia trading as market sentiment has improved ahead of the coming meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders, Baocheng Futures analysts say in a note. Refined copper inventories in China have fallen to a fresh low for the year, and spot availability remains tight, they say. Copper prices could remain firm in the near term although uncertainty over U.S. tariffs on copper and the outcome of the China-U.S. summit remain key risks. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.4% at $14,724.00 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0125 GMT - Ramelius Resources' better-than-expected medium-term production outlook offsets higher costs and near-term cash flow constraints, according to Macquarie. The gold miner's FY 2029-2030 production forecasts are up to 12% higher than consensus. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating and 4.00 Australian dollar target on the stock. It says it thinks Ramelius's shares are fairly valued, trading at roughly 9.0x FY 2027 enterprise value/Ebitda estimates. Macquarie cautions that higher capital expenditure will limit near-term cash flow generation. Shares are up 3.4% at A$3.93, adding to Monday's 6.2% gain. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0115 GMT - Weather-related palm oil and mining disruptions, coupled with higher oil prices, could slow Indonesia's external balance recovery, CIMB economists Joel Cheung and Michelle Chia say in a note. Palm oil output could remain under pressure from dry weather and wildfires, while low water levels could disrupt coal transportation and nickel production in near term, they reckon. Higher oil prices are also expected to widen the deficit by raising import costs, they say. They expect the current account deficit to narrow from its 2Q peak of 3.3% of GDP, but see weather disruptions and oil prices as key risks. They raise their 2026 current account deficit forecast to 2.0% of GDP, up from 1.6% expected earlier. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0106 GMT - Malaysian planters appear well positioned for the European Union Deforestation Regulation's implementation and are ready to meet its compliance requirements, Hong Leong IB analyst Chye Wen Fei says in a note. The final regulatory framework provides greater clarity ahead of the regulation taking effect at the end of December, while the expanded scope for downstream palm-based products is expected to have minimal impact on compliance costs, she reckons. Most planters have already established systems to track the origin of their products and meet due-diligence requirements, she says. Chye says the sector could remain supported by expectations for elevated CPO prices through 2H, amid tighter supply and resilient demand. Hong Leong maintains an overweight rating on Malaysia's plantation sector, pegging IOI Corp. and Hap Seng Plantations as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0009 GMT - Gold rises in early Asian trade. Prices are supported by longer-term fundamentals, says Peter A. Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, in a note. This is driven by persistent central bank buying, rising geopolitical risks and concerns over fiscal sustainability and currency debasement. He says these structural drivers are also complemented by the seasonal period extending into February. Spot gold is 0.5% higher at $4,365.58 an ounce. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2018 GMT - Livestock futures rise to start the week with boxed beef and pork cutout prices both reported higher. Live cattle futures were supported by Friday's Cattle on Feed report showing the smallest placement on lots for August on record, as well as record-low marketings for the month. Cattle settle up 2.5% on CME at $2.22 a pound. Lean hogs rise 1.8% to 69.8 cents a pound. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

2018 GMT - Livestock futures rise to start the week with boxed beef and pork cutout prices both reported higher. Live cattle futures were supported by Friday's Cattle on Feed report showing the smallest placement on lots for August on record, as well as record-low marketings for the month. Cattle settle up 2.5% on CME at $2.22 a pound. Lean hogs rise 1.8% to 69.8 cents a pound. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

2000 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures give back most of last week's gains as the heat than has kept up power-sector demand is set to dissipate. NatGasWeather.com notes "the same bearish factors that were in play last week," including strong U.S. production, weaker LNG exports and a bearish coming weather pattern. National demand will drop to "low to very low" for the 3-15 day period with the southern U.S. cooling several degrees while the rest of the country "will remain perfect temperaturewise," the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas settles down 2.6% at $2.836/mmBtu.

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10