President Donald Trump's Tuesday speech at the United Nations General Assembly annual meeting in New York went as expected. He extolled American exceptionalism and his administration's "peace through strength" approach to foreign policy, and promised a peace deal with Iran in the coming weeks.
Markets don't usually move much on General Assembly activity. This year's meeting, however, could be different. The president is slated to meet with a host of leaders this afternoon, which could result in more news about the Iran and Ukraine-Russia wars.
There could also be updates on efforts to stabilize global energy supplies, notes Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "Signs of diplomacy could ease oil prices and inflation fears, while further escalation or disruptions to regional exports could send crude higher, pressure consumers and complicate the Fed's next move," he said.
Equity performance was mixed midday Tuesday. The S&P 500 was unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.4% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4%.
On Monday, Brent crude oil moved lower on news that Trump was willing to meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and it dipped again Tuesday morning in hopes that diplomacy could lower tensions in the Middle East. While a single meeting won't resolve the conflict, markets are removing some of the geopolitical premium priced into crude, writes Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Roughly 120 heads of state and government are expected to attend the meeting, according to U.N. spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric. They include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran's Pezeshkian, and Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez.
In addressing the assembly on Tuesday, Trump highlighted the strengths of the U.S. economy and military. But the Iran war was front and center as the president called on other countries to be "equally united in maintaining pressure" on Iran and "enforcing complete economic isolation." The U.S. recently unveiled a slate of secondary sanctions on Iran that seek to punish third parties and nations that conduct business with Tehran.
Trump said he had a "big decision to make": whether to make a deal with Iran that "lets them rebuild," or to "annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly."
He added that he believed the U.S. will reach a peace deal with Iran after the midterm elections, noting that the results of the elections themselves wouldn't influence negotiations. "Don't give credence to the election," Trump said. "When it come to Iran, it doesn't even enter my mind. The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon."
The president also said a deal between Russia and Ukraine was "going to happen quicker than most people understand."
Trump is scheduled to meet with Ukraine's Zelensky; Venezuela's Rodríguez, who recently struck an oil deal with the U.S. Department of Defense; Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi; United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham; and Arab heads of state.
The Arab leaders-from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar-will likely press Trump on providing military assistance to defend against the Iran-backed Houthis, who have attacked Saudi's capital city and oilfields in recent days. Gulf monarchies have long relied on the U.S. military for protection, but Iran's successful strikes on various countries' infrastructure have fractured some of the region's confidence in the U.S. Over the weekend, Trump denied Saudi requests for help in a counterattack against the Houthis, according to the New York Times.
The Gulf leaders will likely be looking for more clarity on how the president plans to wrap up the Iran war, which has led to slowed oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and major damage to oil pipelines running across Saudi Arabia.
"Against this backdrop, it would be surprising if the Gulf states weren't looking to distribute their diplomatic, defense, and economic eggs across a greater number of baskets," writes Tom Holland, deputy global research director at Gavekal Research.
The president will head to Washington for high-stakes meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts say artificial intelligence will be one of the main topics they will address. In his speech Tuesday, Trump doubled down on his support of AI and called for changing the technology's name from "artificial" intelligence to "super" intelligence, while acknowledging implementation will bring challenges down the line.
Over the weekend, the president announced he is forming an AI task force and would soon appoin an AI "czar" to foster the AI buildout while shielding it from bad actors.
"America has never been a nation that retreats from a frontier or shrinks from a challenge no matter how great or how daunting that challenge may be," Trump said.