Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 22

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1127 ET - The jump in eurozone energy prices this year due to the Middle East conflict has been smaller in scale than the 2021-22 price shock, helped by a softer link between wholesale prices and consumer bills, ECB economists say in an economic bulletin. The impact of wholesale gas prices on wholesale electricity prices has been damped by a shift toward electricity generated from renewables, they say. It comes as the passthrough of wholesale prices to retail prices has sped up for gas prices overall, but less intensely for electricity, with variation among different countries remaining in both cases, they say. "This implies that wholesale energy price dynamics require close monitoring, as their passthrough to consumer prices remains an important source of near-term volatility in inflation," they add. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0939 ET - Oil futures extend their slide to a fourth session on optimism about flows returning soon through Saudi Arabia's damaged East-West pipeline and about efforts to revive talks between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. Central Command head Admiral Brad Cooper said at the weekend that in the past two weeks, the volume of oil and cargo making it through the Strait of Hormuz was the highest of the past six months. WTI is down 3.8% at $96.49 a barrel and Brent falls 3.1% to $100.65 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0317 ET - European energy stocks start the week in the red as oil prices continue to slide. Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Iran are putting downward pressure on oil. President Trump is set to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York this week. Immediate supply concerns also ease slightly. Brent crude is down 1.7% to $102.08 a barrel, while the front-month WTI contract slides 2% to $98.33 a barrel. In London, BP falls 1.6%. Shell, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol are all around 1% lower. France's TotalEnergies is down 0.8%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0237 ET - Oil prices fall 2% in early European trading as concerns eased over disruptions to Saudi pipeline flows and hopes grew for diplomatic talks between President Trump and Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York this week. Brent crude is down 2.1% to $101.70 a barrel, while the front-month WTI contract slides 2.2% to $98.11 a barrel. "Nevertheless, the market is still focused on the longer-term fallout from the attacks by the Houthi militant group on Saudi Arabia," analysts at ANZ Research say. "The broadening of the Middle East conflict also increases the odds of the conflict persisting for the foreseeable future, and keeping oil supply from the Persian Gulf constrained." According to data provider Kpler, Saudi Arabia's efforts to reroute oil exports are pushing ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman close to their limits, putting pressure on local support services. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0133 ET - A proposed Portuguese solidarity tax on energy profits is a headwind for the oil and gas company Galp Energia, Berenberg analysts write. The windfall tax could see a 33% levy on 2026 Portuguese profits that are more than 20% above the average of 2024 and 2025, and would likely include Galp's refining and commercial profits, they say. The analysts expect the incremental tax exposure to be around 240 million euros. However, there is considerable uncertainty around this figure as the exact structure of the tax is yet to be outlined, they say. The tax isn't expected to effect the downstream merger with Moeve, they add.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0119 ET - Galp Energia's refining unit will post a much higher quarter-on-quarter profit as it benefits from elevated product cracks, Berenberg analysts write ahead of the Portuguese energy company's third-quarter results. Product cracks measure the profit margin from turning crude into petroleum products. The analysts hike their Ebitda expectations for the unit by 170% to 405 million euros and see it as a key cash flow driver. They increase their 2026 cash flow from operations estimate by 44%. Higher cash flow generation should also allow an increase in buybacks in 2027, they say.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

2150 ET - Tenaga Nasional shares appear oversold after falling 12% from their recent high, with earnings expected to strengthen in 2H, RHB analyst Max Koh says in a note. As the government is raising the threshold for fuel surcharges and other electricity charges to 800kWh a month from 600kWh from September to December, the utility will need to absorb 120 million ringgit-150 million ringgit in additional fuel costs, he notes. The cost represents about 2%-3% of their expected 2026 earnings estimate and could have limited impact on forecasts, he says. Earnings could get a boost from a lower effective tax rate in 4Q, which may offset the higher subsidy costs, he reckons. RHB maintains a buy rating on Tenaga and keeps its target price at 16.50 ringgit. Shares are 0.6% lower at 12.96 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2132 ET - Tenaga Nasional is expected to bear an additional 120 million ringgit-150 million ringgit in electricity costs from September to December, TA Securities analyst Hafriz Hezry says in a note. The costs stem from the government's decision to raise the threshold for fuel surcharges and other electricity charges to 800kWh a month from 600kWh during the three-month period. The higher costs could reduce Tenaga's 2026 expected net profit by about 2.0%-2.5%, while the impact beyond December remains unclear, he says. He expects regulatory risks to weigh on Tenaga's near-term share performance, particularly if fuel prices remain elevated into 2027. TA Securities downgrades Tenaga's rating to hold from buy, cuts target price to 13.80 ringgit from 18.00 ringgit. Shares are 0.9% lower at 12.92 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2024 ET - Oil declines in early Asian trade. Initial concerns over extended disruptions to pipeline flows from Saudi Arabia seem to be easing, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. The country said that it expects the East-West pipeline to return to about half its capacity within days after it was shut down following a drone attack. However, the market is likely still focused on the longer-term fallout from the attacks by the Houthi militant group on the country, as the Iranian-backed group has been targeting energy infrastructure, ANZ adds. Front-month WTI crude-oil futures are down 0.5% at $99.76 a barrel; front-month Brent crude futures are 0.3% lower at $103.54 a barrel.

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