The latest Market Talks covering Technology, Media and Telecom. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1434 ET - Truist analysts expect that Meta's new AI assistant, Muse, will add $28.5 billion in incremental revenue by 2030 under a base case scenario. They say in a note that Muse represents "the clearest attempt yet to build a non-ad revenue stream to complement its ad juggernaut and show ROI against its large CapEx." Meta surges 12% after the app to access the AI agent reached No. 1 in Apple's App Store. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1423 ET - Bitcoin could extend its latest rally to $90,000 if long-term investors can join the buying streak, Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard says in a note. The latest run-up was driven by a combination of renewed ETF demand and a big short squeeze, not a macro-driven accumulation event, the analyst says. The biggest traders on Hyperliquid are still net short, and more bitcoin is moving into exchanges than out of them, showing that crypto-native holders haven't embraced the rally, he says. Until they do, the run-up is vulnerable to a reversal if the ETF inflows weaken or Treasury yields push higher again, he says. Bitcoin is trading around $85,800, up 5.8% from a day earlier, according to CoinGlass. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1416 ET - Meta is making the right strategic bet by emphasizing trust in Muse's pitch, Truist analysts say in a note, pointing out that the consequences of AI agents making mistakes or eschewing instructions can be high. Still, they say, the company's reputation might make the pitch challenging. "Muse asks consumers to trust Meta with more personal data than social media ever did, and it arrived twelve days after Meta agreed to an $18 billion settlement with 29 states over social media harms to children," they say. "For a product whose entire pitch is trust, this is not the most favorable launch context." (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1328 ET - The AI trade is continuing to find strength with chip makers gaining strongly. Meta is also up 10% helped by the popularity of its Muse AI agent, the most downloaded free iPhone app in the U.S., according to Sensor Tower. The ubiquity of AI has prompted questions about liability, with the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic signaling that the U.S. government may need to take an active role in regulation. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says on CNBC, that he doesn't agree. "What did they try to do last week? It was, 'Well there's a 10% chance that we could destroy the world, but we want the government to give us a liability shield.' That's good business for them, bad business for the American people." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1139 ET - Private-equity firms have reduced their investments in software compared with previous years, favoring asset-heavy businesses whose products and services are considered less prone to replacement by artificial intelligence, according to a report by the law firm Sidley Austin. The technology sector represented roughly 13% of value of U.S. buyouts this year through June, down from an average of about 30% in the five-year period through last year, Sidley says. "The pullback in activity also illustrated potential vulnerability in software valuations," the firm says. It adds that instead of resolving valuation disputes through negotiation of deal financials, "buyers and sellers now increasingly disagree on [the] more fundamental question" of how vulnerable a software business is to AI-driven disruption. (luis.garcia@wsj.com)
0619 ET - Grab's takeover of buy-now pay-later platform Atome comes at a high price, Peter Milliken of Deutsche Bank research writes in a note. Grab is "paying top dollar" to expand its buy-now pay-later business six-fold, Milliken says. The two-tranche structure of the deal suggests that Atome is expected to generate around $200 million in adjusted Ebitda by 2028, Milliken adds. "Grab likes the idea of using its combined data to improve both companies' credit models, and scaling the foundational infrastructure across a much larger loan book," Milliken says. DB retains a buy rating but trims its target price to $5.60 from $6.40. Shares closed at $2.80 on Friday. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0610 ET - Singtel's shares could benefit from rerating catalysts, Macquarie Capital research analyst Zhiwei Foo says in a note. Every S$300 million of contracts won by Singtel's GPU-as-a-Service business, RE:AI, is estimated to drive a S$0.12 increase in the stock's fair value, assuming all else is equal, according to Foo. Singtel may revisit its conservative Ebit outlook in November, says Foo, who estimates a 12% Ebit increase for the year ending March, above the company's guidance. The results will likely be driven by Optus in Australia and the digital-infrastructure and AI businesses, Foo adds. Macquarie retains an outperform rating on the stock but lowers the target price to S$4.98 from S$5.29 on lower fair values for regional associates and significantly weaker foreign-exchange rates. Shares close at S$4.33. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0549 ET - The AI bubble hasn't burst yet, according to Capital Economics' Thomas Mathews in a research note. "We don't think the fall in tech stocks' relative valuations means the AI bubble has burst yet, and the rally may have a bit further to go," the head of markets of Asia Pacific says in a note. If oil prices keep falling, and manage to bring yields with them, a tech-led relief rally is therefore possible even though the index hasn't fallen that much, he says. "There's potential for market-moving news at the U.S.-China meetings, but our best bet is that progress, and any resultant market reaction, will be minor," he adds. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0507 ET - Malaysia's 2027 budget will likely be a pre-election budget on a compressed timeline, with greater focus on cost-of-living relief and household support, Kenanga economists say in a note. The government is expected to maintain gradual fiscal consolidation while prioritizing spending on AI, semiconductors, digitalization and infrastructure. The economists expect the fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2027 from an estimated 3.8% in 2026, supported by economic growth and lower subsidies. Malaysia is unlikely to introduce broad-based tax reforms, with efforts focused instead on improving tax compliance and collection, they say. The budget is expected to target 2027 GDP growth of 4.5%-5.5%, driven by domestic demand, structural reforms and projects under the five-year development plan, they add. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0459 ET - Some Chinese humanoid-robot component suppliers stand to benefit from higher U.S. robot production, Citi analysts write in a research note. The bank's supply-chain checks in China suggest that the leading U.S. humanoid-robot maker could ramp up weekly production nearly 10 times to about 1,500 units in October. Weekly output could increase further to 2,000-2,500 units by end-4Q or early 1Q, Citi adds. That will likely have positive implications for relevant Chinese humanoid-robot component suppliers, including Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline and Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, it says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0412 ET - Shares of European semiconductor companies start the new week in green territory, building on gains from Friday. Investors have rewarded stocks exposed to artificial intelligence in recent days. In Asia, South Korea's SK Hynix closed 0.6% higher, while Samsung Electronics closed up 5%. In Europe, shares of Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker ASML Holding and smaller rival ASM International are up 2.8% and 1.9%, respectively. BE Semiconductor Industries, the Dutch supplier of semiconductor assembly equipment, is up 0.1%. German chip maker Infineon Technologies gains 2.4%. STMicroelectronics shares are up 2.3%. Meanwhile, the E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures contract edged 0.8% higher, pointing to a positive opening for tech stocks in the U.S. (mauro.orru@wsj.com)
0211 ET - South Korea's aggressive investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure could strain the credit profiles of companies participating in the AI buildout, S&P analysts say. The country could invest about $900 billion in data centers over the next decade, significantly expanding data-center capacity for telecom and other companies, analysts led by James Kim write in a note. Investment burdens would rise sharply for participating companies, weighing on their credit profiles, they say. The country's aggressive AI buildout--which focuses on data centers, semiconductors and physical AI under President Lee Jae Myung's "Three Mega Projects" initiative--could require 1,800 trillion won to 2,000 trillion won, equivalent to $1.3 trillion-$1.4 trillion, in investments over the next decade for chips and data centers alone, they add.