The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1053 GMT - European utilities' earnings will benefit from higher-for-longer natural gas prices on the continent, Bank of America analysts write. Continuing disruption in Qatar, increased demand in Asia and low storage levels in Europe will combine to keep benchmark European natural gas prices at 55 euros a megawatt hour in 2027, the analysts say. Markets are underestimating the impact on utilities' companies EPS by around 6%-9%, the analysts say. European governments could impose lower power price caps, but levels will likely be above prices set in the 2022 energy crisis, the analysts say. SSE and RWE are both likely to deliver strong results in November, they say. A basket of European utilities stocks rise by 0.1%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
1038 GMT - Novo Nordisk's capital markets day announcements, including the diversification plan and a vague midterm sales target, disappointed investors, AlphaValue analyst Abhishek Raval writes. "Against the backdrop of excessive dependency on a single molecule, aggressive and heavy diversification bets, along with impeccable commercial execution, are the need of the hour." However, the markets have their reservations, Raval says. The commercial success of oral Wegovy, some promising late-stage assets, and the firepower for acquisitions provide reasons to bet on Novo, which is available at a discount to peers, he adds. AlphaValue rates the Danish drugmaker's stock at buy with a 450 Danish kroner target price. Shares fall 0.2% to 259.40 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
1036 GMT - European mining companies' potential to benefit from the build out in artificial-intelligence capacity is underappreciated, UBS strategists Gerry Fowler and Sutanya Chedda write. Basic materials companies that supply the equipment and metals needed to build AI capacity are showing strong buy signals when analyzing market trends, earnings, valuation and sentiment, the strategists say. Copper and iron ore miner Anglo American is an especially clear example of mining's importance for industrial capacity expansion, they say. The strategists upgrade mining to a favored sector. A basket of European basic resources stocks rises 1.4%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
1025 GMT - Societe Generale's revenue growth assumptions are conservative and slightly lacking in detail, Citi analysts write. The French bank's investor day left the analysts with "mixed feelings", but detail on cost reduction plans were welcomed. This should drive consensus earnings per share upgrades, Citi says. However, revenue forecasts, especially in the French retail division, were slightly vague. Citi trims its revenue estimates by between 0% and 1% and costs by between 1% and 2%, leading to between 0% and 1% EPS upgrades. Citi raises its target price on the stock to 100 euros from 96 euros and reiterates its buy recommendation. Shares are down 0.2% at 73.75 euros. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)
1020 GMT - European stocks linked to the buildout in artificial intelligence are undervalued compared to their American peers, UBS strategists Gerry Fowler and Sutanya Chedda write. Investors are buying U.S. AI stocks at high valuations, while leaving European suppliers building AI capacity comparatively unloved, they say. The strategists split the AI supply chain into three tiers. Tier one companies sell directly to so-called hyperscalers, while tiers two and three are at steps removed from hyperscaler spending. Companies across all three tiers will outperform the market, they say. Electricity infrastructure group Prysmian, German industrials giant Siemens and vacuum valves-producer VAT Group are all in different tiers, but will each benefit significantly from AI expansion, the strategists say.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
1021 GMT - China's ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost has become a key part of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts globally, including Europe, according to Capital Economics in a research note. CE estimates China's export volumes of solar panels, EVs and lithium-ion batteries, where EU counts as a key consumer, have tripled--while prices have roughly halved since 2022. Emerging markets also import growing amounts of green tech from China, it says. "Efforts to now de-risk from China and cut the country from hi-tech supply chains will put ambitions to achieve net zero emissions further out of reach," CE says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
1020 GMT - Europe must not remain just a spectator of this week's meeting of Presidents Trump and Xi, Volker Treier of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry says. "When Washington and Beijing negotiate trade, raw materials, and key technologies, the German economy is directly impacted," he says. Progress in export controls imposed by China and the U.S. is particularly important, given continuing restrictions on critical raw materials, semiconductors, and key technologies, Treier says. "Further tightening could seriously affect German companies." In particular, rare earths and magnets show how vulnerable European supply chains are due to high dependencies, he notes. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1015 GMT - Uber's plan to acquire Delivery Hero is a key overhang for Grab's share price, DBS Group Research's Sachin Mittal writes in a note. The deal would bring Foodpanda's Southeast Asian operations under Uber's umbrella, in conflict with its noncompete agreement with Grab. Uber would need to fully divest of its 13.5% stake in Grab, which "makes little strategic sense" given Foodpanda's much smaller regional footprint and likely lower strategic value, Mittal says. He notes that the deal might not secure regulatory approval if Uber doesn't sell its Grab stake. Conversely, an Uber threat to Grab could become real if it does divest, Mittal adds. DBS retains a buy rating on Grab but cuts its target price to $5.00 from $5.93. ADRs last ended at $2.91. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
1013 GMT - Brent crude falls below $100 a barrel on hopes for a diplomatic push to end the U.S.-Iran war. The global oil benchmark is down 1.2% to $99.11 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI is down 2.7% to $93.20 a barrel after Japan's Kyodo News reported that Iran has proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the American blockade is lifted. "The report triggered fresh selling, as traders read it as a fresh de-escalation signal ahead of this week's U.N. General Assembly," says Kaynat Chainwala from Kotak Securities. "Until a concrete outcome emerges from this week's meetings, crude's risk premium looks vulnerable to further unwinding, though stalled talks could just as quickly reverse the move." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0944 GMT - The euro is at risk of falling further given the prospect of the European Central Bank keeping interest rates unchanged in October, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. ECB officials have so far kept an October rate hike firmly on the table. "Even so, investors appear increasingly willing to embrace the opposite narrative, pointing to further near-term downside pressure on euro-dollar," he says. Meanwhile, the euro's short-term fair value based on ING's 60-day model dropped below $1.15 for the first time since late July. ING sees the euro potentially falling below June lows of around $1.1320-$1.1330 in the near term. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1456 after earlier reaching a seven-week low of $1.1433, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0922 GMT - Alibaba stands to benefit further from its AI business development, Citi analysts say in a research note. Chief Executive Eddie Wu's messages of a 20-gigawatt AI infrastructure target by fiscal 2033 could translate to $160 billion in external cloud revenue by then, the bank says. That compares with Citi's current forecast of $100 billion in fiscal 2031. The bank also expects Alibaba to continue its high capital expenditure in the coming years. Citi keeps a buy rating on the stock with a target price of HK$189.00. Shares close 1.95% higher at HK$114.80. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0909 GMT - Novo Nordisk's 8% share price fall following the investor day is an overreaction, but proves that investors remain nervous about 2027, with expected price pressure and CagriSema drug launch skepticism, Berenberg analysts write. The Novo story appears more interesting from 2028, with zenagamtide phase 3 data, CagriSema bone and muscle function data and multiple phase 1 and 2 readouts, the bank says. The event provided a comprehensive overview of the company's strategy, R&D pipeline and business operations, but offered only incremental strategic insights, it adds. The 2030 and 2035 sales ambitions were also outlined, which are broadly in line with expectations. Understanding the need to quickly diversify the portfolio ahead of U.S./EU semaglutide patent expiry early next decade, Novo aims to significantly speed up development and supplement the internal pipeline. Shares fall 0.7%.