Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0825 GMT - Copper prices ease from near-record levels amid a stronger dollar, volatile oil prices and expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve. In early European trading, three-month LME futures are down 0.3% at $14,578 a metric ton, as some profit-taking emerged and participants appeared increasingly reluctant to add fresh long positions at elevated valuations. "With the upcoming Chinese holidays also likely to reduce market participation, liquidity should thin further, particularly during overnight trading hours," analysts at Sucden Financial say. Meanwhile, supply risks remain in focus, with union workers at Escondida--the world's largest copper mine in Chile--calling for a strike after rejecting a wage offer, according to ANZ. Other factors supporting prices include uncertainty around potential U.S. tariffs and tight sulphur availability in the Gulf. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0817 GMT - The Norwegian krone rises to a one-week high against the euro after the Norges Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%. The central bank's Governor Ida Wolden Bache said increasing rates should help combat inflation, which has been above target for several years. "It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and the Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target within a reasonable time horizon," she said. Market pricing had suggested the decision was a close call. The euro falls to as a low as 10.7531 krone after the decision, from 10.7907 beforehand.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0805 GMT - Investors have raised their expectations of central bank interest-rate rises over the coming months, pushing up average global government bond yields to almost 4%, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Resilient economic growth in the U.S., Asia and Europe and concerns about inflation are causing markets to price in the possibility of further interest-rate increases by key central banks, he says. Investors price in three or more interest-rate hikes by each of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England over the coming year, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0757 GMT - The Swiss franc falls after the Swiss National Bank kept interest rates at 0%, as expected, and suggested that rate increases were unlikely for now. "Medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly. Monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development," the SNB said. The SNB expects Swiss inflation to rise somewhat in the fourth quarter, before declining over 2027, although it acknowledged a high level of uncertainty. The central bank appeared unconcerned about recent Swiss franc weakness, which it said had "a supportive effect" on growth. The euro rises 0.3% to 0.9420 francs, from 0.9379 beforehand. It hit a three-week low of 0.9371 francs shortly before the announcement. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0750 GMT - The Swedish krona rises after the Riksbank held interest rates at 1.75% but said rates should be raised more than previously anticipated in future. Sweden's central bank said if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, it expects rate increases to begin this year. Economic activity is stronger and supply shocks from the Middle East conflict continue, it said. While August inflation was low and in line with the Riksbank's forecast, the central bank sees risks that inflation could rise more than previously expected due to higher oil prices and a weaker krona. The euro falls 0.4% to an intraday low of 11.2439 krona, compared to 11.2776 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0747 GMT - Gold prices are broadly muted, hovering around $4,300 a troy ounce as expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates further weigh on the nonyielding asset. In early European trading, futures in New York are flat at $4,316.30 an ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and Treasury yields climbing to multi-year highs. "Fed officials have also maintained a hawkish stance, with Governor Michael Barr indicating that further tightening may be required," analysts at MUFG say. "With markets now pricing at least three additional hikes by April, elevated yields and persistent energy-driven inflation remain significant headwinds for noninterest-bearing gold." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0729 GMT - Investors in U.K. government bonds, or gilts, will pay attention to the credibility of the government's spending and revenue generating plans at the October 28 budget, Mizuho's Evelyne Gomez-Liechti says in a note. Gilt yields are close to multiyear highs, which raises the cost of borrowing and adds pressure to U.K. public finances. A sharp increase in long-dated gilt yields ahead of the budget could signal that investors are worried about U.K. fiscal sustainability, Gomez-Liechti says. Ten-year gilt yields rise 2 basis points to last trade at 5.340%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0727 GMT - The Norwegian krone could rise sharply if the Norges Bank raises interest rates in a decision at 0800 GMT, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. While market expectations suggest the decision is a close call, the Norges Bank's policy path currently signals it won't increase rates until the end of the year and the case for tightening at Thursday's meeting has weakened somewhat, she says. However, the Norges Bank is more likely to keep rates unchanged for now and wait for December to gather more information. This would disappoint some market participants who are expecting tightening and could cause the krone to fall briefly, she says. The euro falls 0.1% to 10.7892 krone. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0725 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, rise due to rising oil prices as energy supply disruptions persist. Brent crude is up 0.6% to $103.71 a barrel. High oil prices have caused markets to raise their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months. Markets price in a 75% chance of a BOE rate increase in November, and fully price in a total of three rate increases by March, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields rise 3 basis points to last trade at 5.350%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates at 0% in a decision at 0730 GMT, with investors focusing on accompanying commentary. The SNB is likely to be "simply satisfied" with recent weakness in the Swiss franc, with the euro last week reaching its highest since April 2025 at 0.9480 Swiss francs due to diverging interest-rate expectations, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. "In March, it [the SNB] intervened verbally several times to prevent the franc from appreciating further. Higher euro-Swiss franc levels are therefore likely to suit it quite well," he says. The franc rises ahead of the decision, with the euro hitting a three-week low of 0.9375 francs. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0703 GMT - The Riksbank's policy decision at 0730 GMT is likely to be neutral for the Swedish krona, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. Sweden's central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% while continuing to signal that a rate rise is possible by year-end, she says. August inflation data showed very low price pressures although elevated energy prices and the krona's depreciation since start of the year could be reflected in future prices, she says. "I therefore expect that the Riksbank will make only minor adjustments to its statements and projections today, while maintaining its restrictive stance." The euro falls 0.1% to 11.2801 krona. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0640 GMT - The dollar trades flat but remains firm after reaching an eight-week high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday driven by the prospect of further U.S. interest-rate rises. The dollar has continued to strengthen since the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points and signalled further moves last week. Comments from Fed officials since the meeting have added to market bets for rate rises. Stronger-than-expected U.S. purchasing managers' surveys on Wednesday further boosted tightening expectations, prompting the dollar to extend its gains. The DXY dollar index trades steady at 101.098 after rising as high as 101.231 Wednesday.

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