The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1051 ET - U.S. Treasurys would face a fresh round of selling pressure if renewed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in Iran prove to be misplaced, BMO Capital Markets' Ian Lyngen says in a note. President Trump is touting a "very good meeting" between the U.S. and Iran, along with plans for another one in the near future, raising hopes that an end to the conflict could be coming, Lyngen says. But it remains unclear if any progress has been made toward a formal deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he says. If talks break down, a rebound in energy prices would weigh on Treasurys, Lyngen says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1034 ET - Gold futures are lower as the U.S. dollar gains amid higher U.S. interest-rate expectations. "The near-term setup for gold remains challenging," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "A dollar holding above 100 and October hike odds above 50% represent a structurally negative combination for non-yielding assets, and further hawkish signals ahead of the October meeting could extend the current pressure." Gold for December delivery is off 1.4% in New York at $4,315.20 a troy ounce. Silver is down 2.2% at $65.04 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0947 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding their ground after making another test of the $3 level ahead of Monday's October contract expiration. Hot September weather and below-average inventory injections have supported prices, although cooling demand is seen tapering off sharply into the fall. "Temperature patterns remain mostly unsupportive, and despite a stretch of relatively small storage builds, inventories are set to enter the winter at healthy levels," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 0.6% at $2.982/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0943 ET - Oil futures are gaining after falling the previous five sessions on optimism about oil flows out of the Middle East and renewed efforts to restart talks between the U.S. and Iran. While discussions have been held through mediators, Iran has shown little interest in direct talks, Ritterbusch & Associates says. The firm notes President Trump's comments that he expects a deal after the midterm elections and his repeated threat to annihilate Iran. "Such statements do little to sway us from a longer-term bullish stance." WTI is up 0.6% at $91.05 a barrel as the November contract debuts at the front of the curve. Brent is up 1.3% at $100.51 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0905 ET - Treasury yields rise as markets face geopolitical uncertainty and brace for interest rate increases amid a lull in economic indicators. China's Xi Jinping visits the U.S. Brent crude rises 1%, back to $100 a barrel, following President Trump's threat to escalate the war in Iran if Tehran fails to accept a deal. Hawkish Fedspeak supports bets on a sequence of hikes into 2027. The 10-year yield rises to 4.988% from yesterday's settlement of 4.966% and the two-year increases to 4.796% from 4.749%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0842 ET - Latin American and European customers would be the hardest hit by a potential ban on U.S. diesel exports, according to Capital Economics, but the impact on global prices would be felt everywhere. "Any reduction in the flow of diesel from the U.S. would weaken one of the key offsets that has helped to ease the woes currently facing the global diesel market," says David Oxley, chief commodities economist. This year's boost in U.S. diesel exports has helped offset around half of the loss of global supplies caused by disruptions to Russian refineries and the Iran war. A full ban could reduce seaborne global supply by a further 30%, Capital Economics estimates. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0743 ET - European indexes turn negative after initially opening higher, as an upturn in oil prices weighs on sentiment. Banks and technology stocks lose their early momentum to trade lower, with the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 falling 0.5%. London's FTSE 100 slips 0.2%, while the French CAC 40 drops 0.3%. Losses are most heavy for the German DAX, with the energy-sensitive index dropping 0.8%. Chip maker Infineon Technologies drops 2.7%, while autos in the index also slide. Insurer Allianz loses 3.3%, as companies that benefit from consumer inertia fall on investor concern around the impact of AI agents. The Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX 35 both drop by 0.6%. The Dutch AEX is 0.5% lower.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0522 ET - A targeted U.S. diesel export restriction could provide some near-term relief to domestic fuel prices while avoiding the disruption of a complete export ban, says Michelle Brouhard from Kpler. Export controls would be more complicated to administer than a blanket ban, requiring Washington to determine and monitor volumes, licenses, exemptions and, potentially, destinations. At the same time, they would give policymakers greater flexibility over how many barrels remain in the U.S. and which foreign buyers retain access. According to Kpler, limiting exports by 500,000 barrels a day, rather than the full 1.2 million barrels a day, would leave more fuel in the U.S. market while allowing roughly 700,000 barrels a day to continue reaching overseas buyers. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0451 ET - China's crude imports are expected to stay low in the coming months if oil prices remain elevated, analysts at Goldman Sachs say. Seaborne imports are currently about 3 million barrels a day below seasonal norms, despite a modest pickup in September. According to the U.S. bank, imports could increase by about 600,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter mainly due to seasonal factors and refineries exporting more refined products while drawing down inventories more slowly. Despite the increase, imports are still forecast to be more than 3 million barrels a day lower than a year ago. "We continue to view a possible escalation of strikes on Mideast crude production and export infrastructure--not higher China imports--as the main upside risk to our crude price forecast," the analysts say. Goldman sees Brent at $85 a barrel in December. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0430 ET - A diesel export ban in the U.S. could force refineries to produce less fuel of all types and further raise domestic prices, according to the American Petroleum Institute. "If diesel exports were blocked, surplus fuel could start filling storage on the Gulf Coast," the trade association says. "As storage tanks are filled, the only way to avoid producing even more surplus diesel would be to process less crude oil." As a result, refineries would produce less gasoline, jet fuel and other products at a time when global supplies are tightening. "The impacts could extend far beyond pain at the pump, to dire consequences for international supply chains, agriculture, shipping, manufacturing and the entire global economy," the API says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0429 ET - The Bank of England could come under pressure to increase interest rates following recent rate increases by central banks in the U.S., Japan and Europe, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Concerns about high oil prices and inflation risks have caused major central banks to move towards rate rises. Markets price in three or more rate increases by each of the key central banks over the next year, LSEG data show. "Once the Fed, ECB and BoJ are all responding to the energy shock with tighter policy, it becomes harder for markets to believe the BOE can sit this cycle out," he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0350 ET - The possibility of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November remains due to inflation concerns as oil prices are still fairly elevated, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The recent decline in energy prices hasn't been sufficient to alter market expectations of a BOE rate rise in November, he says. Investors price a 66% chance of a BOE rate increase at the November meeting, unchanged from last week, LSEG data show. "Unless Middle East diplomacy produces a material and sustained fall in energy prices, the market is likely to keep some probability of a November hike embedded," Munnelly says.