Oil Prices Fall on U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Hopes

Dow Jones
2 hours ago
 

Oil futures fell for a fifth consecutive session on hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East and encouraging news about oil exports from the region.

Brent crude settled down 1.1% at $99.25 a barrel, its first close under $100 since Sept. 8. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery fell 1.2% to $94.59 a barrel as the contract expired.

Oil prices moved lower after Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported that Iran proposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade. Iran's Fars News Agency later said sources denied the reported offer.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, began running tests on its East-West pipeline on Tuesday, a step toward restoring flows as soon as this week after the pipeline was knocked out by attacks earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu could restart within a couple of days, according to the people. Saudi Aramco, which runs the pipeline, didn't respond to a request for comment.

World leaders are gathering in New York for this week's United Nations General Assembly, with investors watching for signs of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran. Qatari officials plan to use the gathering to discuss the possibility of resuming talks, The Wall Street Journal reported.

In his speech before the U.N. General Assembly, President Trump said he expects Iran to reach a deal with the U.S. after the November midterm elections, adding that such an agreement would send oil prices below prewar levels. Trump said the U.S. Navy has escorted "more than 1 billion barrels of oil" out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Futures pared losses following Trump's speech, which Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA said "pretty much threw cold water on hopes for a breakthrough" before the midterms.

Talks aimed at reopening the strait have so far failed to produce a sustained return to prewar shipping levels and shipping risks through Hormuz remain elevated.

Still, energy traffic through the strait has increased. The volume of oil, natural gas and cargo passing through the strait over the past two weeks reached its highest level in six months, according to the U.S. Central Command, a combatant command of the U.S. defense department.

"I think the more important development over the past few months is the dark fleet transit," said Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodity strategist at BCA Research. "The conflict and rhetoric can escalate and de-escalate, but as long as oil is still coming out of the strait, then the ultimate impact on crude markets is going to be more muted."

Saudi Arabia has relied increasingly on Hormuz since the shutdown of its East-West pipeline. Around 2.4 million barrels a day of Saudi crude and condensate flowed through the strait over the past two weeks, returning to levels last seen in early July, according to Kpler.

The four-week average of Saudi crude loadings from inside the Persian Gulf rose above 2 million barrels a day last week from virtually zero for most of June and less than 1 million barrels a day in July, according to energy information company Vortexa.

Despite recent optimism about oil flows, concerns remain while the conflict continues unresolved.

Bank of America raised its Brent price estimate for the second half of this year to $95 a barrel from $83 a barrel, and for 2027 to $80 a barrel from $75 a barrel.

"Continued skirmishes into year-end are now our most likely scenario," Francisco Blanch of BofA Global Research said in a note. "Although alternative routes and escorted Hormuz shipments have mitigated some of the shortfall, damaged infrastructure and rising geopolitical tensions make rapid normalization unlikely."

 
 

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